Within a few days, several processes were weakened that could hamper the Democratic Party's chances of re-occupying the White House.
Butige. Already in New Hampshire // Photo: AFP
Although there are still nine months left until the November 3 ballot, and the White House race may still go through many and far-reaching transformations by then, the current week can be voted as a black week for the Democratic Party - which could become a catalyst in its crash path to create a snowball that would make it worse. Down a dangerous electoral slope. This is because within a few days a number of processes and assemblages were intertwined, creating a critical mass of weight that could jeopardize its chances of re-occupying the oval office.
First, in the political-legal sphere, the Democratic camp's hope was ultimately to leave the focus of public and media discourse on President Trump's impeachment trial as long as possible (and preferably by election day). This is through the summoning and questioning of key witnesses who will present incriminating and damning information about the White House's conduct in the "Ukrainian Relations" affair. After the Senate finally decided not to summon witnesses - the deadlocked on those ambitions, and the impeachment trial is set to end this week in a thin silence with Trump's acquittal.
Trump's impeach trial is set to end this week // Photo: EY. times. Islands
In addition, the first round of the pre-election campaign in the Democratic camp was disastrous for her in every possible way. The endless delays in the countless vote counting process and technical failures revealed during Iowa State Assembly polls indicated an unimaginable organizational salience that could project an image of weakness and a lack of ability to manage and govern effectively. Beyond the corporate dimension, the nature of things has not been so good with this movement lately.
Joe Biden, the top Democrat, and who is considered Trump's most dangerous opponent, who has led national-level polls for a full year (and has been considered, until the last two weeks, a must-win candidate in Iowa), collapsed embarrassingly, finishing the first round of this marathon instead Fourth, trailing far behind no less than three Democratic adherents (achieving only 15.4% of the delegates).
Biden finishes fourth only // Photo: Reuters
This is the surprising winner, Pete Bottage (who won 26.8% of the delegates), second-place winner Bernie Sanders (who won 25.2%), and third-grader Elizabeth Warren (with 18.4%). The fact that Iowa is the first hurdle in the race has made it a barometer, seemingly reflecting on earnings and general trends throughout the continent. In other words, since this is the first actual baptism of fire - Iowa has become a measure that identifies evidenced signs that have validity and meaning that cross its borders.
In that respect, Biden's defeat of Iowa could be fatal to him and mark the beginning of his glide down a slippery slope. This is because in the next round of the pre-election season, which is due in New Hampshire next Tuesday, his status was in the first place, and he is - according to all the polls - a definite disadvantage against leading candidate Bernie Sanders.
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Moreover, the "iron law" of primaries politics states that a candidate who was defeated - or not contested at all - in Iowa and New Hampshire, was destined for the tribe, and soon faded into oblivion (Bill Clinton's success in 1992 to win the Democratic nomination despite his two losses) These early rounds, there was an exception and a single standard deviation from this pattern over the past four decades).
Because double discriminations, even if occurring in two states, which do not constitute a reflection or accurate reflection of the total American experience and all its complexities, create permanent chain reactions and wave waves, making it difficult for the loser to continue the race (partly due to depletion of resources and labeling as a failed candidate). , Biden today faces a tangible and immediate danger as to his chances of surviving the campaign.
Despite this weakness, the success of Pete Bootige, who won the race in Iowa and which is also in the pragmatic and moderate square of Biden, has to be remembered, though it is a charismatic personality that radiates youthful freshness and inexhaustible energy (age 38), absent from his personal portfolio. Almost entirely the component of managerial experience in public administration.
Bloomberg skipped Iowa // Photo: Reuters
Therefore, a third candidate, who chose not to run in Iowa and New Hampshire at all, decided to try to break the "Iron Law" on the necessity of winning at least one of these two rounds of elections. This is former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, who (with the help of his fortune and organizational ability) is only going to get on the train at Third Station (South Carolina), hoping that success in this state, and a week later on "Big Tuesday," will give him the long-awaited momentum .
Like Biden and Bottige, Bloomberg also represents the "mainstream" in the Democratic Party, and the split in that camp may play directly into President Trump's hands. Not only can this fragmentation offset the moderate bloc's blood in fierce clashes - but it may further bolster the status of the claimant, Sanders (who is also facing an easy challenge in Senator Warren's image, who shares a distinctly liberal worldview, if Not extreme).
Since Sanders' positions are far from light years away from the protected and agreed space of the American political center, and fundamentally grounded in socialist ideology - his possible strengthening is a particularly joyful new one for the president. And so, on the eve of New Hampshire's decision to become Biden's Valley Valley, the White House can rest, at least for the time being, on the laurels of its annual speech to the nation, the aggravating rift in the rival party and recent public opinion polls that indicate its status and support rates.