The Limited Times

Guillaume Tabard: "The RN's new bet"

12/17/2023, 7:50:20 PM

Highlights: The government and the right have a common obsession: not to let the National Rally be the sole winner in this confused sequence. Not being able to achieve anything concrete and binding would indeed be good for a party that is currently on the rise in the polls. Even if a poll never has a predictive value six months before an election, the prospect of such a gap is enough to sow concern, if not doubt. It is common for European elections to be used as an excuse to let off steam or to warn at no cost. Legislative elections, on the other hand, are used to designate those who can exercise power.


COUNTERPOINT - After the largely won battle of "de-demonization," here comes the battle for credibility. This has two components: credibility to win and credibility to govern; the former being a prerequisite for the latter.

In their joint hope for an agreement on the immigration law, the government and the right have a common obsession: not to let the National Rally be the sole winner in this confused sequence. Not being able to achieve anything concrete and binding would indeed be good for a party that is currently on the rise in the polls.

30%, according to Ifop, 28%, for Ipsos, in the European elections: the RN list is credited with an unprecedented score for this party, all elections combined. With a lead of about ten points over the majority list. Even if a poll never has a predictive value six months before an election, the prospect of such a gap is enough to sow concern, if not doubt, in Emmanuel Macron's camp. But it is common for European elections to be used as an excuse to let off steam or to warn at no cost. Legislative elections, on the other hand, are used to designate those who can exercise power. However, another Ifop-JDD survey also grants...

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