The message was haunting, which spread one of the most important economic lobbyists in Germany in recent weeks: electoral successes of the AfD in the state elections in East Germany would not only harm the image, but also the economy, warned Dieter Kempf, head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI) repeated. Germany must be "attractive and inviting" - with the AfD Kempf, however, connects "xenophobia and nationalism."
However, Kempf's warnings were not too effective. Although the AfD was nowhere the strongest force - but in Saxony, 27.5 percent of voters opted for them, in Brandenburg, 23.5 percent. On Sunday evening, employer boss Ingo Kramer spoke of "increasing concern" about the strong AfD, and the business associations Berlin-Brandenburg warned that the companies were "cosmopolitanism and tolerance indispensable."
The argument of business representatives and labor market experts: Businesses, especially in East Germany, urgently need skilled workers from abroad. If these do not come, the economy in the East can no longer grow, businesses would even have to close or migrate. In the absence of taxpayers 'and municipalities' purchasing power and local purchasing power, the public infrastructure continues to thin out. As a result, more workers are leaving - a downward spiral.
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AfD election poster in Brandenburg
On the other hand, the AfD has achieved the best results right there, where the fear of unemployment is high - for example in the lignite mining areas. Whether new jobs will be created there on time, was one of the main topics in the election campaign. It is understandable that in such regions massive immigration of skilled workers from abroad can be perceived as a threat rather than a necessity. How dangerous are the successes of the AfD actually for the economy in East Germany? In other words, does East Germany really need many more workers from abroad in the future?
A whole bunch of statistical data and facts gives answers:
First, the East is already lacking manpower today
The skills shortage is not threatening the East - it is already there, and in almost all areas. The Federal Employment Agency (BA) has already noted a massive shortage of skilled workers for Saxony and Brandenburg as well as for the other eastern countries
- in vehicle engineering,
- for mechatronics and automation,
- for energy technology,
- in civil engineering,
- in sanitary and heating engineering,
- in the elderly,
- in physiotherapy and
- at professional drivers.
Second, the labor shortage is already hampering the Eastern economy
The German job miracle has been going on for a decade and has even accelerated recently - since 2015, significantly more than half a million new jobs requiring social insurance have been created each year. In eastern Germany, however, the number of employees increased by 1.8 percent in 2018, weaker than in the west, where it was 2.5 percent. In Thuringia it was only 0.5 percent.
The reason is the head of the regional employment agency, Kay Senius: It simply lacks the people who could occupy the jobs. And the problem will get worse. Every year, more workers retire in the East than young people enter the labor market again.
Third, almost everyone works in the East - the West still has reserves
The times in which mass unemployment prevailed in East Germany have already been over for some years. Although the unemployment rate is still slightly higher than in the western section - but that leads astray. In this context, another key figure is more important: the employment rate. The average is much higher in the east than in the west.
Employment rate 2017
Share of 15 to 65 year olds with a job subject to social security contributions to total population in the age group in 2017. Not included: civil servants, self-employed, soldiers, mini-jobbers
On the map of Germany, 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the outlines of the old GDR were visible: it was customary for women to do paid work, and so it is today. In the West, the employment rate of women is still below that of men - which means that there is still a small potential labor force in the West that can be activated. It's already exhausted in the East.
Fourth, aging is particularly hard on the East
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, around 1.9 million more people have moved from east to west than vice versa, which is already clearly visible in many places: many people over the age of 60, only a few young or middle-aged. This is illustrated by an interactive graphic of the Institute of German Business.
Looking into the future, this difference will be sharply worsened. According to the current population projection, there are currently 39 over 67 year-olds in the East for 100 people of working age between 20 and 66 years. In 2030 there will already be 50 retirees for 100 earners - and by 2040 already 55. In this prognosis, it is already assumed that more than 200,000 people from abroad will immigrate to Germany each year.
The demand for manpower will thus for the foreseeable future, especially in eastern Germany, not be covered in the coming decades - and the sharp increase in the number of older people will even increase demand. For who should care for the many people in need of care in the future?
Fifth: The East needs above all skilled workers - and fails in education
The East German labor market has a peculiarity: there are far fewer unskilled laborers and helpers than in the West. According to the IAB Establishment Panel, 27 percent of jobs in the West are simple jobs that do not require training - but only 17 percent in the East.
Here it turns out to be a mortgage that in East Germany, the proportion of early school leavers is sometimes alarmingly high.
Share of school leavers without a school leaving certificate (2016)
Conclusion: The economy in the East is actually in danger
The facts are clear: Germany as a whole needs urgently skilled workers from abroad in the coming years in order to maintain economic power and increase prosperity. The demand is especially high in East Germany. It is doubtful whether it will succeed in attracting skilled workers in such a high number of countries - the electoral success of an at least partially openly racist party like the AfD will at least make that no easier.