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Granted, sometimes politics works painfully slow. Debates break up and ebb again. Other topics are coming to the fore, serious and trivial. In between, the impression solidifies that nothing really happens. Frustration spreads. Citizens react with cynicism, others with panic.
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Issue 38/2019
Our contribution to climate protection
Damned but coveted: The SUV - symbol for the German double standardDigital Edition | Printed issues | Apps | SUBSCRIPTION
Climate change is a good way to observe this pattern. Since the mid-1980s, man-made global warming in waves has made headlines again and again, only to be quickly replaced by other major topics - wars, economic crises, migration.
But this time things seem different. Climate change has topped the political agenda. Substantial progress is possible - which is due to changing economic conditions rather than to politics.
While Fridays-for-future initiator Greta Thunberg touring through the United States, Friday meets the "Climate Cabinet" of the Federal Government to adopt a whole package of measures. Saturday is a New York Children's Climate Summit (with Greta). In Brussels, future Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has just proclaimed a "European Green Deal" and declared the fight against climate change a top priority for her term of office. No doubt, there is something going on in terms of climate policy.
So far, the announced measures remain vague to contradictory. The German energy transition is still a disaster. Lean ecological results are faced with gigantic economic costs: more than 160 billion euros in recent years, according to the Federal Court of Auditors - while the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) temporarily increased again and the Federal Republic will miss its agreed climate protection targets for 2020.
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But at least: Now there should be a restart in climate policy - because many citizens want it and because the economic conditions are favorable.
There are three main factors that have changed:
1. The consequences of climate change are obvious . Heat waves, drought and thunderstorms are more common and more violent than before. Dealing with the effects of climate change is a business reality for many industries and companies - from agriculture to logistics. The soundboard for Klimaleugner is cracked.
2. The costs of regenerative energy production are falling rapidly . Wind, sun and biogas have become serious competitors of fossil energy sources such as coal and gas, as independently calculated by the Freiburg Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems and the investment bank Lazard.
3. Money is available . Capital seeking investment opportunities is abundant; The interest rates are extremely low. Financing conditions could hardly be better.
This changes the climate equation: The expected yields of a tighter eco-gait increase, the more severe the climate change comes to light. At the same time, the costs of switching to renewable energies are falling.
In 1990, when the IPCC presented its first report, a largely green energy supply was utopian - today it is a realistic perspective. In the UK, for example, carbon dioxide emissions are now at their lowest levels since 1888, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), because hardly any electricity is generated by burning coal.
Wind, sun, water and biomass are expected to make up one third of electricity generation worldwide in five years' time. Even emerging economies such as China and India are increasingly investing in renewable energies - not only because of climate protection, but also because it is cheaper. And because urban pollution is now so serious that the authorities fear the anger of the citizens.
Of course, that's not enough. According to current IPCC calculations, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions must fall drastically by 2050 - from more than 40 billion tons of CO2 per year to net zero, which is equivalent to what the biosphere can absorb from new emissions. Only then, according to prevailing doctrine, could an increase in average temperatures be limited to two degrees.
Humanity is far removed from such a climate-neutral balance. But after all, after a rapid increase in the 1990s and 1990s, global greenhouse gas emissions have stagnated for several years. From now on, they could sink again. The question is, is this process going fast enough?
Plenty of energy, cheap and clean
So far, the green future has been an economic threat scenario: climate security could only be bought with a loss of prosperity. But the leaps in efficiency in the use of sun and wind now give the possibility of a world rich in cheap, clean energy.
Video: Analysis of the coal exit - "It may be that the price of electricity is falling"
DPA
Unlike coal, gas or nuclear power plants, which constantly require new fuel, solar cells and wind turbines produce electricity without further action. Every additional kilowatt hour of electricity can be generated virtually for free. Accordingly, energy prices could drop to zero. The still very expensive electricity storage (for example in the form of hydrogen, which is generated by means of electrolysis) could pay off in this scenario. This would also allow sectors such as heavy industry and transport to reduce their emissions, areas where this is still difficult today.
The move to cheap energy seems to be developing its own momentum: Those who still rely on obsolete fossil technologies in one generation could suffer massive competitive disadvantages. This applies to entire economies - which is why in the US President Donald Trump can demonstratively announce the exit from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, but many countries and corporations nevertheless pledge to continue on this path. This also applies to individual groups: financiers and investors must fear that they will eventually be left with worthless fossil assets. Bank regulators therefore look to such risks to limit future imbalances in the financial system - a disadvantage in financing.
Germany as a deterrent example
As great as a world may be, fueled by cheap renewable energy, it is also clear that transition will be expensive. Existing energy, industrial and transport systems must be replaced by new ones. That costs money and jobs - see the turmoil around the German lignite mine.
Video: Lignite mining in Lusatia
Patrick Pleul / DPA
The consistent energy turnaround is therefore a distributional conflict between the generations: the benefits of the reversal have our children and grandchildren, the burdens are in the present. But this conflict will be all the milder the further the cost of the regenerative sinks - and the more efficient the transition is.
The expensive German energy transition serves more as a deterring example internationally - not as a role model that could encourage emerging and developing countries to imitate. In the scrub of interest groups and overly complex regulations, a monster has emerged. In the worldwide energy transition ranking of the World Economic Forum (WEF), Germany still ranks 17th, far behind the top performers in Scandinavia and Switzerland. The proposals for the German "Climate Cabinet" that have been available so far give reason to fear that this style will continue.
To pave the way for the energy transition, it requires prices for climate-damaging emissions. The Expert Council for the Assessment of Macroeconomic Development ("Fünf Weise") has proposed in a special report for the German government to introduce a single price for carbon dioxide emissions - be it through a tax or through the extension of emissions trading, which it applies to EU Level for industry and energy generation already exists. This would avoid complicated detailed regulations for more and more areas of life.
"We do not do anything"
The matter remains complicated. Germany contributes just two percent to global emissions of greenhouse gases, the EU a total of ten percent. China now emits more CO2 than the US and the EU together. No German citizen can save the world by not driving, on air travel or the consumption of beef (livestock is released climate-damaging methane). The best hope rests on the economic momentum emanating from the sinking costs of renewables.
In winter Greta Thunberg spoke in Davos at the World Economic Forum. It's not like that, she said, that humanity is doing too little to curb global warming: "The truth is that we do not actually do anything." Fortunately, that's not true.
The main economic events of the upcoming week
Monday
Ankara - peace? - Planned Syria Summit with Erdogan (Turkey), Putin (Russia) and Rohani (Iran).
Tuesday
Luxembourg - money back! - The European Court of Justice is hearing a lawsuit from Ireland and the Apple company. Dublin had granted the tech company high tax rebates, which the European Commission later classified as unauthorized aid and condemned Apple for additional payments of more than 13 billion euros. The US technology company and Ireland are resisting the decision.
Wednesday
Washington - Under Pressure - The US Federal Reserve decides on its course. For months, US President Trump has exposed the Fed and its chief Jay Powell to unprecedented public pressure.
Madrid - Finally a real government - Expected first parliamentary vote on re-election of Prime Minister Sánchez. Since the elections in April, it has not been possible to get a government majority together. Should the re-election fail, another ballot is imminent.
Thursday
Tokyo - Much helps a lot? - The Japanese Central Bank, the most expansive in the world, decides on further monetary policy.
Gelsenkirchen - Demands - The Federal Tariff Commission of the IG BCE decides how much it will demand in the upcoming collective bargaining round.
Friday
Berlin - No great climate - Meeting of the "Climate Cabinet" of the Federal Government. The Cabinet Committee is to decide on measures so that Germany can make faster progress in saving greenhouse gases and achieve the target for 2030 - a reduction of 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. Between the coalition parties, the ideas about suitable measures differ widely.
Saturday
New York - Greta and Co. - Youth Climate Summit ahead of the general debate of the UN General Assembly. Greta Thunberg is expected.
Brighton - Left and high - The British Labor Party convention begins. In the case of new elections, Opposition Leader Corbyn's party would have a realistic chance of serving the Prime Minister. The problem: under his leadership, the party has moved far to the left and cultivated, especially in economic policy tight socialist ideas.