Of the planned increase in the commuter tax, drivers benefit predominantly. This is clear from figures provided by the Federal Statistical Office to SPIEGEL. According to the survey, more than four-fifths of long-distance commuters use a passenger car with a commute distance of more than 20 kilometers - and correspondingly less than a fifth use climate-friendly means of transport such as the train.
In the already harshly criticized climate package of the Federal Government, the increase of the commuter commute is among the most controversial measures. It is intended to compensate for the higher fuel costs resulting from CO2 pricing - but only for long distance commuters. Only from the 21st kilometer distance to work should it rise by five cents to 35 cents.
That put exactly the wrong incentives, complain about the Greens: the further someone drives to work, the more money. However, party leader Robert Habeck did not look good on this issue. He apparently did not realize that the commuter tax allowance is paid not only to motorists, but regardless of the means of transport that someone uses for the commute. Therefore, not one-sided driving encouraged, argue politicians from the Grand Coalition.
The higher the income, the greater the savings
The data of the Federal Statistical Office show, however, that in reality autopoopers in particular will benefit from the tax concessions. These are the vast majority of all commuters anyway, even if you do not take the route into account: 67.7 percent - almost exactly two in three - use the car. But especially at long distances to the workplace, the proportion of car dealers increases sharply: 84.3 percent use a car, if the distance between 25 and 50 kilometers. If the workplace is even further away, 78.7 percent of commuters drive.
These figures come from 2016 and are derived from the Microcensus, for which official statisticians survey thousands of households, including their commute and means of transport.
But how many commuters, whether they drive or train, will feel the higher distance allowance? On the basis of the data, this can be estimated quite well: According to this, about 19 percent of all commuters drive more than 25 kilometers to work - that is just under a fifth. If one differentiates between means of transport, 15.7 percent of all commuters drive more than 25 kilometers to work - and only 3.3 percent drive more than 25 kilometers, but with a different mode of transport.
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The proportion of commuters who would receive the increased lump sum would be a little above these values, because this is to be increased already from the 21st kilometer. However, the microcensus only classifies the distance as "10 to 25 kilometers" or "25 to 50 kilometers" - the values do not include those commuters whose journey is between 21 and 24 kilometers.
However, these are unlikely to feel the increase: Depending on the income, the tax savings with a commute of 24 kilometers only between about 6 and 21 euros a year. This is shown by calculations based on data provided by the tax expert Stefan Bach from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). With a commute distance of 40 kilometers, the savings would increase to around 31 to 105 euros, with a commute distance of 60 kilometers to around 62 to 209 euros - the savings being higher the more the commuter earns.
Social injustice
After all, the few long-distance commuters who travel by train, fully benefit from this savings - but for them the commuter flat rate is capped at 4500 euros a year. This corresponds to a commute distance of 61 kilometers. For motorists, however, this restriction does not apply - but they also have to pay higher fuel prices due to the CO2 price.
Including the higher fuel costs in the calculation, resulting for motorists a very mixed picture - depending on income and consumption of the car. In 2021, when pricing starts at a fairly low ten euros per ton of CO2, even low-wage earners on the bottom line could still benefit - as the Greens point out. However, this only applies to fairly long journeys and low-consumption cars.
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Assuming a gasoline engine with an average consumption of 6.5 liters per 100 kilometers, a low-wage earner with a marginal tax rate of 14 percent (which corresponds to a gross income of 13,000 euros per year for a childless single) would only start in 2021 Distance of 42 kilometers relieved. At a distance of 25 kilometers, he would be burdened by the higher fuel costs the bottom line with around twelve euros a year. A good earner, on the other hand, who pays the top tax rate of 42 percent, would then have more on the bottom line, albeit with a minimum of three euros a year. At a distance of 40 kilometers, he would already have 60 euros a year more available.
Following the gradual increase in the price of CO2 to 35 euros per tonne in 2025, a low-wage labor route of 25 kilometers would burden both low and high earners. However, this burden for low-income earners is around 63 euros higher than for the good earner with around 47 euros. With a travel distance of 40 kilometers, the discrepancy increases significantly. Then the low-income earner is charged 82 euros a year, the good earner only with 20 euros. At a distance of 60 kilometers, the low-income earners would be burdened with 108 euros a year - on the other hand relieves the good earner: He would then have the bottom line 16 euros more a year.
This social imbalance is due to the logic of the tax system: when spending can be deducted from tax, the savings for high-income people are always higher than for low ones. Petrol or diesel, on the other hand, are becoming more expensive for everyone. After all, at this point, the SPD now apparently thinking about a rework - a kind of income-independent mobility money, as suggested by DIW expert Bach.