The findings are hardly to be misunderstood: "The industry is in recession, its production has been declining for a good one and a half years, which is crucial for the economic weakness," says the joint autumn report of the five largest economic research institutes, published last Wednesday.
In short: the German economy is on the decline. And not just since yesterday. The symptoms of the crisis are found almost daily in the news.
How do the Germans react? On the one hand, they are preparing for bad times - they say, according to SPIEGEL economic monitor. On the other hand, you go shopping. And that can be quite surprising. Finally, you could now cover money for the bad times.
In an interview, political economist Henrik Enderlein explains what a particular point in the course of the crisis we are right now. Industry is already clearly feeling the downturn, but jobs are still not affected. According to Enderlein, there is not much time left - you should use it for countermeasures.
DER SPIEGEL: Mr Enderlein, Germany's economy has presumably shrunk for two consecutive quarters. But that does not seem to happen to the citizens: they consume as if the money just keeps flowing in the crisis. How does it fit together?
Henrik Enderlein: Private consumption is just one of many indicators of the economy. And if I look at such a complex structure as the German economy, then it can even be dangerous to consider only one value. It's like the doctor: A single value can look great - and the patient can still be sick.
THE MIRROR: And what is the consumption mood of consumers in the patient comparison?
Enderlein: Maybe something like blood pressure? There can be fatigue states that are due to it. The blood pressure can also be great - and yet there is a disease.
THE MIRROR: Let's start this way: How sick is the German economy if we do not look at consumption?
Enderlein: Overall, I am afraid that the situation is more serious than it often seems at the moment.
THE MIRROR: Which symptoms allow the conclusion? The weakening export?
Enderlein: The development of exports is indeed worrying in the short term. The new trade conflicts or Brexit are detrimental to the German economy, because we are so dependent on exports as no other big country. But just as quickly as such uncertainties can occur, they have disappeared again. Forecasting the state of world trade in 2020 is more than difficult. For me, the bigger challenge is that German companies can not adequately cushion such trade shocks.
THE MIRROR: Where is the problem with the companies?
Enderlein: You can fix that in the investments well. Although companies have made good, often very good sales and profits in recent years, they only invest at a low level. This is a warning signal: no company that believes it has a promising business concept is willing to invest. For the perspectives of the companies that does not bode well.
DER SPIEGEL: Which symptom also gives cause for concern?
Enderlein: The condition of the German infrastructure. It is a crucial prerequisite for a successful economy. And not only does Germany fall behind in comparison with other states. Because so little has been invested for so long, such as in roads, communication networks, rail transport, the old substance is partly dilapidated. And there are still the tasks due to climate change. This area is becoming increasingly important for the country's future viability.
THE MIRROR: However, the job market is doing comparatively well.
Enderlein: That's right. And of course the job market is something of the heart of an economy. Nevertheless, he is currently in the overall view for me not the decisive size. Our labor market is strongly influenced by demographic dynamics. In many areas there is a lack of skilled workers. But we should not be under any illusions. A recession eventually reaches the workers. If the incoming orders go back, the production is throttled. If that stays that way for longer, jobs will not be filled, later employees will be dismissed. Only then does a crisis reach the job market. The salaries can be a little faster if the wage increases do not occur. At the latest, if this development in the personal environment of many people arrives, they will also limit their consumption.
THE MIRROR: And who has just lost the job, of course, saves.
Enderlein: ... And so a crisis that starts with exports and industry continues into other industries. The currently strong consumption feeds on the strength of the past. Many workers have only recently received the pay increases that are an answer to the past good years.
THE MIRROR: Then again to the initial question: When will the mess with the citizens?
Enderlein: The coming half year will determine how strongly each individual feels today's crisis in their own purse. Scenario One: Growth returns. Scenario two: We are sliding into a real recession. Scenario Three: We are lulling ahead with growth rates of perhaps half a percent. I think the third scenario is currently the most likely. But much depends on the countermeasures.
THE MIRROR: What could help?
Enderlein: The government has to decide on a policy that is quickly gaining confidence, especially among companies. Under such conditions, the black zero must not be sacrosanct. When the state takes money and announces an investment program, companies and consumers react. Investments mean new jobs, which in turn encourages companies to keep employees or even hire new ones. And there is a lot of demand, especially in infrastructure, but also in investment in education and innovation. Рs capitalized investments are thebandcommitmentsofthedian
THE MIRROR: Finance Minister Olaf Scholz will tell you: The funding offers are there, they are just not used by municipalities and counties.
Enderlein: Yes, infrastructure projects usually have a long lead time. But that is precisely why it is so important to announce investments early and explicitly. We can also ensure that projects are carried out faster and less bureaucratic. A large number of funding opportunities for the federal government exist on the condition that part of the funding is borne by the municipality. Many municipalities can not afford it. We need a political solution.
THE MIRROR: The consumption figures could thus weigh one in false security. Should we look at other measures when assessing the economy?
Enderlein: To stay in the initial picture: no doctor relies on just one value in the diagnosis, you have to get an overview of many data. Take, for example, the growth forecast for the coming year: 0.4 percent of the growth should occur automatically - because fewer public holidays fall on a weekday than in 2019. Instead of focusing on tenths of a percent, one should therefore broaden one's gaze and the ability for the future and innovation of our country.
THE MIRROR: What then tells us the currently stable consumption?
Enderlein: Stable consumption obscures the view that our economy is not as strong as we believe. We should look at the weaknesses. Anyone who does that recognizes: Now is the time to counteract with foresight.