Martín Bidegaray
02/13/2020 - 19:49
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán , has already made contact with the mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the country. The official participated this Thursday in a meeting with the multilateral agency and with the Secretary of Finance, Diego Bastourre.
Simultaneously with the fact that second-line officials began a direct dialogue, President Alberto Fernández validated the position of Vice Cristina Kirchner, who from Cuba recriminated the agency to have, in his opinion, a discretionary application of its rules . According to the former president, the government of Mauricio Macri was granted a loan that ended up financing the capital flight - something prohibited by statute - and the current administration is denied a take away from the debt to be refinanced, also forbidden by the same regulations.
Beyond that background landscape, to which more bellicose statements by Máximo Kirchner were added, the IMF envoys asked questions about the country's private debt , beyond the commitments with the multilateral agency and others. Although these data were already discussed in previous meetings between Guzman and the IMF, there was a more technical presentation, with numbers.
Luis Cubeddu head of the IMF mission with Julie Kozak deputy director department for the Western Hemisphere after meeting Minister Economy Martin Guzman in Argentine consulate New York. 1/28/20 - (photo Clarín)
The IMF met Wednesday with Raul Rigo, secretary of the Treasury. The official and his team answered questions about public accounts , sources that are not part of the government explained. The Ministry of Economy did not report on the IMF's agenda in the country or the activity of the minister with the multilateral agency.
Guzmán was already twice with the IMF in Buenos Aires. Wednesday's meeting was shorter, because the official had to address Congress. Instead, Thursday's meeting took longer, as Clarin rebuilt from unofficial sources. The next step of the IMF is a meeting with Miguel Pesce, president of the Central Bank .
The IMF team - headed by Luis Cubeduu, head of the mission, with Julie Kozack, deputy director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere department - heard Guzman's projections about the state of public accounts and the country's repayment capacity against a debt restructuring. The announcement that the country will reach fiscal balance in 2023 did not generate the best response in the markets.
The IMF also does not want to provide details on what it will do in the country. Some economists who are not part of the ruling party say they were contacted for "technical" meetings, but have not yet been confirmed.
The IMF's concern is about this year's financial program for Argentina, which faces maturities of more than US $ 25,000 million with private creditors - some US $ 8,000 million are interest . This account excludes multilateral organizations (such as the IMF itself or the Paris Cub) and intra-public sector debt, that is, with the same State agencies.
There are more than US $ 16,000 million that private individuals, whose issuance currency are pesos, have to collect, according to data from the Ministry of Economy with calculations as of October 30, 2019. The Executive Branch believes that it has room to maneuver to achieve refinancing or "Rolling" of those obligations.
The biggest concern is about the more than US $ 8,000 million owed in foreign currency. That debt is mostly issued under United States legislation . Any modification requires the approval of three quarters of the creditors, at the risk that there are lawsuits.
Luis Cubeddu, head of the IMF mission and (behind) Julie Kozak, Deputy Director of the Department for the Western Hemisphere, already met with Minister Economy Martin Guzman at the Argentine Consulate New York (Photo Adriana Groisman)
The IMF approved a loan for Argentina of US $ 57,000 million. However, after the change of government, it was decided not to accept the last section of it. The country received US $ 44,000 million from the multilateral agency .
On the debt with private, the recent episode of the "Dual" bond, which the Government decided to "reperfilar" and postpones its amortization of $ 96,000 million for September 2019 opened doubts in the market. In the Ministry of Economy they understand that it should be treated as if it were in dollars, since the subscribers of the bond contributed in that currency. Debt analysts understand, instead, that they were issued under Argentine legislation and in pesos.
Official sources understand that this "reperfilation" of the Dual or AF20 responds to a specific situation . That it is not a signal towards the rest of the debt nominated in pesos. The drawback with the AF20, as official sources describe, is that it was mostly subscribed by foreign investment funds, such as Templeton and Blackrock. These firms did not accept a swap proposed by the Argentine Government, which implied a removal of between 19% and 40%, according to analyst estimates.
