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Does a month of confinement really cost 3% of France's annual GDP?

2020-03-31T18:06:55.052Z

Using estimates from INSEE, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, estimated the cost of a month of confinement at 70 billion euros. Is it credible?



THE QUESTION. Taking up INSEE's assessments, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, considers the estimate that a month's confinement of the population would amount to cutting France's annual GDP by 3% to be " reasonable ". Other economic institutes are even a little more optimistic, such as the OFCE which expects a decline of 2.6%. The order of magnitude remains the same and relatively limited compared to the extent of confinement.

Read also: Coronavirus: is the economic crisis that is starting comparable to 1929, as Bruno Le Maire says?

Is it not a complacent vision, when two-thirds of the population are at a complete standstill or on partial unemployment, that the economy is completely disorganized, that the production chains are out of stock and that the exit from the epidemic remains a big mystery?

CHECK. Often bullied as " room economists ", conjuncturists should be experts in the matter! On the contrary, they are paralyzed. " It is an understatement to say that what we are presenting today is fragile and susceptible to revision, " warned all of

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Source: lefigaro

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