The figures make you dizzy: more than one employee in two concerned, more than 800,000 companies requesting… Partial unemployment in the private sector has never been used as much as to face the economic crisis linked to the epidemic of coronavirus .
10.2 million employees are the subject of a request for partial unemployment by their company on April 21, according to the latest figures communicated by the Ministry of Labor. This represents more than half of the 19.7 million employees in the private sector in France, according to the latest INSEE data for the last quarter of 2019.
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Not surprisingly, these figures cover disparities depending on the region, the sector, and the size of the company.
Île de France tops demand
The Ile-de-France region is the one where the most employees affected by a request for partial unemployment work (23.4%), far ahead of the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region (12.8%). In mainland France, Bourgogne Franche-Comté (3.7%) and Corsica (0.5%) close the ranking.
It is also necessary to study the proportion of employees in each region compared to France. It is always close to the proportion of partial unemployment. Ile-de-France and Auvergne Rhône-Alpes combined together account for almost 37% of the workforce affected by the scheme but also 37% of private paid employment in the country, for example. In other words, the share of employees affected by partial unemployment in the private sector is around 50% in all regions.
Construction, trade and restoration most concerned
The top 5 of the sectors most affected by short-time working is obviously made up of trade (23% of applications filed) due to the closure of most stores, specialized, scientific and technical service activities (13.9%) , construction (13.7%), accommodation / food services (13.5%), and other service activities (10.9%). In hotels and restaurants, for example, this represents more than a million employees.
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"It's not at all surprising, many of the companies in these sectors have been closed by the state," reminds Parisian economist Bertrand Martinot, director of training consultancy at Siaci Saint Honoré. This specialist in the job market mentions in particular non-essential shops, cafes and restaurants. "Given the almost complete shutdown of construction sites, which brings together nearly 1.4 million employees, this is not at all surprising," adds Bruno Ducourier, economist at the OFCE.
At the back of the pack, we find, not surprisingly, the agriculture sector. Minister Didier Guillaume even called on the French to go to the fields to lend a hand during the harvest.
The most affected small boxes
57% of employees affected by partial unemployment work in establishments with fewer than 50 employees, while these represent 51% of salaried employment. We therefore observe an over-representation of the employees concerned by the partial unemployment scheme.
Please note, these figures apply to establishments and not to companies. That is to say, for example, the different factories of the same brand. 976,000 establishments, representing 821,000 businesses, are concerned, some of them therefore having several activity sites.
Be that as it may, "small businesses more often have cash flow and organizational problems, it is easier to work while respecting social distancing in large spaces and large factories than in a small workshop, a small office, for example ”, underlines Bertrand Martinot. The bosses must therefore resolve to different measures depending on the size of their business or their ability to telecommute.
A plateau reached?
After having increased sharply from the end of March to mid-April, the number of employees affected by a request for partial unemployment seems to have gradually declined since April 17.
Does this mean that a "plateau" - to use the term used for epidemic curves - has been reached? "Given the drop in activity estimated at 40% in the private sector, it is likely that it will not go up much more. But the number could still increase a little if there are companies that revise their forecasts realizing that they had not necessarily anticipated well, ”underlines Bruno Ducourier.
It should also be remembered that we are not talking here about the number of employees who are really inactive, day to day, but only those for whom the partial unemployment scheme has been activated. However, "given the high level of uncertainty, companies can anticipate a future use of the system for employees they do not place on short-time work for the moment", anticipates the economist in an analysis note published Wednesday on the OFCE website.