Annabella Quiroga
04/24/2020 - 10:15
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
The alternative dollars are peeling off the $ 100 floor they crossed last week. Already comfortable above $ 110 - on Thursday the blue touched $ 120 and the cash settlement (CCL) reached $ 114 - they move under the pressure of the increase in the pesos in circulation and the uncertainty it generates the debt restructuring. For economists, in this context, the North American currency does not have a defined value in Argentina. But they emphasize that as long as the idea persists that the country may fall into default again, the "released" dollars will continue to pull higher.
What is the real value of the dollar in Argentina ? The economists consulted by Clarín did not dare to put the "bell on the cat". But they agreed that it has no ceiling as long as monetary expansion and the threat of default persist.
The first point has a direct connection to quarantine. With 80% of the companies paralyzed or half-machine, the State has to come to the aid of the private sector to prevent the payment chain from being cut and the social situation from riot.
To do this you must resort to the little machine : the Central Bank issues weights and dumps them in the plaza. Most economists agree that this increase in emissions " is the lesser evil " given the slowdown in activity. But at the same time, more money circulating in a context of uncertainty puts pressure on the dollar. Neither people nor companies want pesos : what they are looking for is protection of value (dollars) or goods.
The second point is the deep fight of the local economy: to decide whether or not there will be an agreement on the debt. Days ago the Ministry of Economy released the prospectus of the exchange proposal and the market read it as an offer with low chances of prospering. Again, given the uncertain outlook, investors are turning to the dollar.
"What is happening is a reflection of what is happening with the debt. The market understood that in this first stage the Government is not going to give the arm to twist and the possibility of a default is increasing . The exchange rate does not he is oblivious to that scenario. So the gap between the CCL and the officer is again at 72%, "says Nery Persichini of GMA Capital . "In addition, there are many pesos circulating that do nothing but lubricate the dollarization process ."
What would be the proper value of the dollar? "It is hard for me to find him a flat and even more to find a roof for him. It is very quick to put the bell on the dollar. You have to keep a close eye on what happens with the exchange rate because it will be an early reflection of what happens with the debt. In this context, debating the equilibrium value of the dollar is like debating the sex of angels, "says Persichini.
For Federico Furiase the dollar faces a " perfect storm ". In this tornado they push "the monetary issue to face the quarantine, the drop in the rates in pesos, the expansion of inflation and the uncertainty of the debt."
"The expectation is that a liquefaction scenario is coming before the fiscal hole increases. If the government does not negotiate the debt well, the dollar has room to continue rising because what the current price is reflecting is the flight of the pesos. The economy's absorption capacity of pesos is limited and this raises the dollar and inflation, "says Furiase.
From Seido Consultores, Gabriel Zelpo reinforces that "they are emitting at a rate that has not been seen for a long time in Argentina, while activity and collection continue to fall. They are too many pesos for an economy that does not like pesos ."
"Given the situation, I would not be encouraged to say about the dollar 'it has come this far', especially when we are still in our forties. The rise in recent days has been very aggressive. Alternative dollars eventually put pressure on the official. And it is very difficult for in the medium term there will be a convergence other than the official one approaching the parallel, "summarizes Zelpo.