The number of international tourists could fall by 60 to 80% in 2020 under the effect of the pandemic of new coronavirus, announced Thursday the World Tourism Organization (OMT), which predicted at the end of March on a fall of 20 to 30% . " This is by far the most serious crisis that international tourism has faced since the start of the surveys " in 1950, said this Madrid-based UN agency in a statement.
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Arrivals have already fallen by 22% in the first quarter over a year, and even by 57% in March after the start of confinement in many countries, specifies the UNWTO. The sector thus lost 80 billion dollars (74 billion euros) over the first three months of the year. In total, financial losses could range from 910 billion dollars (843 billion euros) to 1.200 billion dollars (1.111 billion euros). " The impact will be felt to varying degrees in different regions of the world and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to be the first to rebound, " added the organization.
These new forecasts are based on three scenarios for exiting the crisis: reopening of the borders and lifting of travel restrictions in early July (58% drop in arrivals), early September (-70%) and early December (-78%). The WTO fears " the endangerment of 100 to 120 million direct jobs in tourism ".
Signs of recovery, especially in 2021
Experts of the agency " expect to see signs of recovery in the last quarter of 2020, but especially in 2021 ", with a recovery in domestic demand faster than that of international demand. " Leisure travel, particularly that taken to visit friends and relatives, is expected to resume faster than business travel ," said the report.
The most positive prospects concern Africa and the Middle East, " the majority of experts predicting a recovery in 2020 ", while those on the Americas are the most pessimistic, with a recovery perceived as difficult for 2020. Europe and Asia, " the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts predicting a recovery during this year ".