For the time being, the Covid-19 crisis has cut the incomes of only a minority of French people, and the partial unemployment measures implemented by the State have made it possible to limit the damage.
However, according to an assessment by the French Observatory on Economic Conditions (OFCE), short-time workers should lose at least 2.7 billion euros in income, or 410 euros on average for eight weeks of confinement. In other words, this situation has just created new inequalities in the population.
A study by Xerfi cabinet paints a picture. "At the end of confinement, the impact of the Covid-19 crisis will have been insensitive to the income of the majority of French people," said this specialist cabinet. An observation based on pure arithmetic.
Seven out of ten French people saved
“Of the 55 million adults over the age of 15, 4 in 10 are inactive (housewives and men, unable to work, students, high school students and retirees who do not work in addition to their studies or their retirement) . They are therefore not individually concerned by a reduction in remuneration, unless they have an active spouse affected ”, continues Xerfi.
Indeed, retirement pensions are still paid, compensation for the 2.7 million unemployed will be paid. The same goes for the civil servants who will receive the salaries.
"Added together, these groups represent a little more than 32 million people, or nearly 6 out of 10 French people of working age, to which are added the 8-9 million private employees who continued, cahin-caha, to work normally or by teleworking, or put on vacation, and whose salaries have not been cut, "said Alexandre Mirlicourtois, economist at Xerfi.
So in total, 40-41 million French people, or seven out of ten, have so far been more or less spared.
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But for others, the drop in income is brutal. Starting partial unemployment, which affects 12 million people. On average, the loss of income for the two months should be on average around 410 euros for the OFCE, and 600 euros for the Xerfi firm.
But then again, not everyone is housed in the same boat. “At Smic, the compensation is 100%. It is capped above 4.5 times the minimum wage. But at these levels of compensation, less than 5% of employees are affected, "says the firm.
Trade on the front line
According to the OFCE, “employees in the trade sector risk being on the front line in this loss of income. They represent 16% of requests for partial unemployment. Construction workers (11.5% of requests) and accommodation and food service workers (8.9% of requests) are also likely to suffer. Conversely, employees in the agricultural sector (0.4% of requests) or in real estate activities (1% of requests) are likely to be less affected by these decreases in income. "
The consequences for the 3.2 million self-employed workers are even greater. “Their sectoral distribution gives an idea of the impact. In the front lines is construction (and its 364,000 self-employed), but also commerce and commercial crafts, transport (Taxis and VTC in particular), services to individuals, freelancers in BtoB, "adds Xerfi.
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And this situation is likely to worsen in the coming months. Many companies, such as bars and restaurants, will maintain partial unemployment measures with activity which should resume at a slower pace. INSEE anticipates that economic activity will be down 33% compared to a normal situation.
According to the Banque de France, economic activity in France plunged by 27% in April. The production capacity utilization rate in the industry went from 77% in February to 56% in March, then to 46% in April "the lowest level ever recorded in this survey", underlines the Banque de France . In services, the average number of closing days in April varies between 24 for catering and accommodation and only one day for programming and advice, as well as for cleaning.
At the same time, the State plans from 1 June to reduce its share in the compensation for partial unemployment except for the sectors where the administrative closings are maintained. In fact, the loss of income will further increase for certain categories of employees.
"A heavier dropout is undoubtedly to come with the announcement of a reduction in compensation for partial unemployment from June 1 and the growing threat of collective redundancies", warns Alexandre Mirlicourtois adding: "We are therefore than at the start of the recessive spiral. The massive loss of income is therefore before us and will gradually affect a majority of French people. "