Ray of sunshine on the employment front. According to a study that we reveal exclusively, job offers are back in June on broadcast platforms. Hellowork (ex-Regionjob), digital player in employment, who analyzed the volume and trends in the distribution of job vacancies by recruiters in France (companies or recruitment intermediaries) on its online platforms on the first months of 2020 even believe that in terms of offers, the market is regaining good momentum. It would even soon return to its level of pre-containment, with however contrasting situations depending on the regions and sectors of activity.
"During the first weeks of deconfinement, we are witnessing a gradual and real recovery in the economy," says David Beaurepaire, Deputy Director of Hellowork. It's encouraging. Recruiters are relaunching announcements and planning for the coming months. However, we will have to see if it lasts, ”he said. This improvement comes after three months of almost complete cessation of activity which had violent repercussions on the unemployment figures.
Hospitality, business services and food processing are recruiting
In April, the number of unemployed category A registered at Pôle emploi (excluding Mayotte) jumped 22.6%, an increase of 843,000 job seekers. If the manufacturing, aeronautics and personal services sectors are still lagging behind, the hotel, catering, business services and even agrifood sectors are rapidly picking up again.
Should this be seen as a warning sign of the global recovery in activity? “These figures show a good trend. The situation is not catastrophic but it remains sluggish, companies are still experiencing significant declines in activity today, relativizes Mathieu Plane, economist at the OFCE and specialist in the job market. No question of claiming victory, the experts insist.
"We do not yet see any catch-up effect on the months lost," adds Bernard Gomel, researcher at the CNRS. For the impressive drop in employment levels in the crisis to be compensated for, there must be a catch-up effect quickly. Some fear "an artificial increase", like Géraldine Rieucau, professor of economics at Paris VIII and specialist in establishing relationships on the job market.
Household consumption will be decisive
"That it is starting again now, after months of stopping the economy, it is not very surprising," she underlines. Online ads are also only a small part of the job market. Only 7 to 8% of job seekers find work on the Internet. ” What about the quality of the jobs offered? “Restaurants and hotels, which seem to be leaving, are best known for their short contracts. This resumption of offers will probably not be enough to mark a real drop in unemployment over time, "analyzes Christine Erhel, economist at Cnam (National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts) who estimates that it will take several weeks to find out if the jobs offered are real job creations.
To get out of the rut and return to the virtuous circle of growth, other indicators will have to go green again, in particular household consumption. The coming months will be decisive for the French economy. “Savings are currently very important. Households have never been wealthier. The summer will be an interesting window to see if the French are going back to consumption, continues Mathieu Plane. Their savings should not become precautionary savings to deal with the crisis. This is the worst possible scenario. "