The 27 found themselves in virtual summit on Friday to launch negotiations, as complex as they were uncertain, on a massive post-coronavirus recovery plan, which would mark a historic step in European construction. No agreement is expected during this meeting. Above all, it must allow each European leader to reveal his objectives, as well as his negotiating margins, on this stimulus intended to support a stricken European economy. "It will be a warm-up lap, essential for taking the temperature," explains the Elysée. In particular that of the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark, the four "frugal" (or "stingy" ), very reserved with regard to this plan, which will primarily benefit the countries of the South .
The Europeans, who meet at 10 am, hope to find an agreement before the end of July, so that the plan comes into force in 2021, which gives them six weeks. "This is one of the most important joint projects in decades," said a European diplomat. "We can talk about something historic". The discussion will focus on the European Commission's proposal for a € 750 billion “stimulus” , largely inspired by the initiative of Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron - a weighty alliance in the debate.
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This fund complements a revised proposal for an EU budget for the period 2021-2027 of 1.100 billion euros, on which the member states must also agree. The 750 billion of the stimulus would be borrowed in the name of the EU on the financial markets, generating a "common European debt" , which breaks a European taboo. Of this amount, 500 billion would be redistributed as part of the EU budget in the form of grants to the countries most affected by the coronavirus, such as Spain and Italy, and 250 billion euros in the form of loans. "Cohesion and solidarity have never been more important than today," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday.
In his "invitation letter" to the summit, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, believes that "a consensus is emerging" on the need for such a plan and on the fact that it must "be financed by common loans . But there are still many differences, be it the amount, duration, balance between loans and grants, criteria for allocating aid, as well as the delicate question of "conditionality" , c 'ie the counterpart (for example of reforms) claimed from a State in exchange for these funds.
A compromise to be found
Supporters of greater financial discipline, the four "frugal" claim a level of spending "proportionate" , much lower than the 750 billion announced. And they opt for loans, which each State will therefore have to repay, rather than grants, the repayment terms of which are not defined in the Commission proposal. Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven says he is " very critical of the fact that the EU should raise 500 billion euros (...) to then distribute them in the form of grants, without any obligation to reimburse, thus sending the invoice to future taxpayers ”.
The Commission mentions several possibilities for the financing of this 500 billion by finding new resources to feed the EU budget, without increasing the national contributions of the States: widening of the revenues collected on the European carbon market, carbon tax at borders, tax on the activity of large companies or a tax on digital companies. But here again, a compromise will have to be found between the member states.
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"If, at the end of the summit, everyone has understood and listened to the others and the ambition is to succeed before the summer, I will be very happy," said the European diplomat. After this first round, Charles Michel will launch consultations for one or two new summits in July in Brussels, this time physical. A real meeting between leaders with their breaks and aside, is considered essential to reach a compromise on such a complex issue, where unanimity is required.