Ezequiel Burgo
07/04/2020 - 20:31
- Clarín.com
- Economy
At the Casa Rosada and at the Ministry of Economy, they begin to glimpse the roadmap beyond the debt issue that, finally, enters the final stretch from tomorrow with the presentation of the new offer to the bondholders. Specifically, the question is, what will happen to the recovery of the economy in the post-swap and post-pandemic era? The economists of the oficialismo know that this year is played. But when they look at 2021, the phrase they drop is lament: "Recovery will take time . "
Almost two weeks after the notice 'The economy began to move, here we show you how' , and in which in five minutes the Government showed how activities had returned to produce in May and June, the economist Fausto Spotorno published that the economy the Last month it stalled again after a rebound from the previous period.
In the Government they admit that it will be necessary to arm oneself with patience . In the first half of the year, there were inconsistencies in economic policy that caused mishaps, for example, those that led to the increase in the exchange gap, and even to the delay in debt negotiation. But there is also resignation and regret because you see effects and impacts that are difficult to mitigate. Specifically, the pandemic sank the economy, stretched the bondholders agreement because it is not the same to negotiate face-to-face than via zoom and weakened the effectiveness of expansionary policies : increasing public spending will have a limited impact on demand while health restrictions last. .
An official close to Fernández asks "how can it be that there are one million and four hundred thousand monotributistas who qualify to withdraw a credit at zero rate, who only have to click on the AFIP page and do not take it?" . Government calculations show that only 400,000 of that universe were awarded (there are 500,000 approved). These are convenient credits that have a grace period of six months and pay in one year. As Paul Romer, the Nobel Prize in Economics, has been saying in a series of articles on his blog, uncertainty is not only shaping the behavior of people and consumers, but also tests the functioning of the tools that economists and governments have more at their fingertips. Surprised this official because a million monotributistas do not take money from the State, try the following explanation: "There are three reasons for the cautious attitude we see. First, people don't want to go into debt beyond the context. Second, there is distrust of taking a loan from the banks. Third, the lowest sectors face very high uncertainty about what the future of their earnings will be because they don't know when they will return to work . ”
Close to Fernández and Guzmán they are aiming to close the year with a primary deficit just above 6% of GDP . The private sector sees the figure closer to 7%. "We started the year proposing 1.4%, that was already ." They estimate that the cost of the third round of ATP will be $ 48 billion (the first ones cost $ 52 billion and $ 43 billion respectively). Like the IFE, helping companies pay their employees' wages will be reviewed round by round . "The government's fiscal room for maneuver is far from that of our neighbors," admit the President, referring to countries such as Chile, Peru or Brazil that will record fiscal deficits of almost 10% of GDP. "We came to the Government with a debt default both in dollars and pesos, which restricts our financing capacity If we had not advanced with the Law of Social Solidarity and Productive Reactivation and if we had not increased export rights, among others, the economy would have registered, before COVID, a passive primary deficit of 4.2% of GDP in 2020 that was avoided ” .
A key issue to elucidate is what Guzmán intends to do after settling with the bondholders : borrowing from abroad or just clearing his financial program and facing a series of reforms with the IMF . Over and over again in the government they crush that the country will be away from the international market for a while. The remaining mattress, therefore, will be the domestic market. “The key is to strike a balance between positive interest rates , proper regulation , and an exchange rate that is not falling behind. People must have an incentive to save in pesos. We cannot make mistakes there . ”