The recovery of public accounts is not planned for 2021. On the contrary! The government intends to put the budgetary means in the next finance bill, the broad guidelines of which were presented on Thursday, to stimulate the economy and allow a sharp rebound in growth in France. The objective assumed by the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, is very clear: “To regain from 2022 a level of national wealth for France equivalent to the level before the crisis. "
By then, according to Bercy forecasts, growth should lose 11% in 2020, before a mechanical rebound of 8% in 2021, or 4 points less than before the start of the health crisis. “But there are still many uncertainties around these two figures, we warn at Bercy. These forecasts may change. "
The 100 billion euro stimulus plan will be detailed on August 24
Despite everything, to succeed in reinvigorating the economy by the end of the presidential term, a vast stimulus plan of 100 billion euros over two years will be announced on August 24 in Matignon. Already, some well-known measures, such as youth employment, will come into force in September. For the rest, the distribution of expenditure for this recovery plan between 2021 and 2022 has not yet been decided. At Bercy we want the “maximum” to be granted from 2021 to benefit from the economic benefits as quickly as possible.
But how to finance such an envelope? European aid funds - to the tune of 40 billion euros - must support part of this. For the rest, it will go through debt. Anyway, these stimulus spending will be "isolated" from the rest of the budget, said Bruno Le Maire, evoking a "concern for sincerity and transparency".
But no question of tightening the screw so far. The budget for 2021 - excluding the recovery plan, therefore - provides for an increase of 7 billion euros (+ 2.6%) for spending on ministerial missions. At Bercy, it is estimated that these credit increases are “investment” expenses voted previously. Examples with the budgets of Defense or Justice whose lines of appropriations were already provided for in programming laws.
At National Education, the significant budget increase also includes the expected salary increase for teachers. And that of the Community Relations mission takes into account compensation for loss of revenue such as the housing tax. Other ministries - the Economy, but also the missions of the public audiovisual sector or the Cohesion of the territories - will however have to reduce the wing, following savings reforms already recorded.
No downsizing in the public service
But the government does not plan this year to reduce the workforce of the public service to grab here and there a few euros. If the objectives of the Head of State remain unchanged, 2021 will be the year of the “stabilization” of the workforce, we mention at Bercy, “to face the very specific context and the additional workload”.
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Finally, what about the loss of tax revenue expected next year, such as the reduction in production taxes and the gradual abolition of the housing tax for 20% of French people? "We hope that what will be spent in the recovery plan will be reinjected into the economy and into growth to generate new revenue," Bercy believes. We can totally find ourselves in equilibrium thanks to the stimulus. "
