07/24/2020 - 16:40
The exchange market returned to shake with the rebound of the informal or blue dollar , which closed the week touching a new record -nominal- when trading at 140 pesos . With little volume and due to difficulties in operating it due to restrictions on circulation, it is considered that it is not a very representative value . But the price is there, for all to see.
The upturn is noteworthy when financial analysts consider that an agreement between the bondholders and the Argentine government is very close , which would put an end to the strike by the exchange of debt of dollars in foreign law.
But beyond these nuances, the important thing is to talk about the currency gaps . At the close of this week, the blue was 84% above the official retail dollar , which touched 76 pesos. In turn, the dollar price that comes from buying and selling bonds was 115 pesos. This value is 51% higher than the official value and is 21% below the blue.
The escalation of blue correlates with the greater restrictions imposed by the Central Bank, which in recent days targeted the microscopic part of the exchange business, that is, those who lent their accounts so that others would take advantage of the quota of $ 200 per month.
Commercial banks launched, at the suggestion of the Central Bank, a series of communications to their clients to refrain from receiving transfers of dollars from third-party accounts, or that if they did, they were no more than one per month.
This deactivated a move -of uncertain volume- that had been launched with the use of third-party quotas, in what was called the phenomenon of digital collectors.
What is really important is that the currency gaps incentive any type of "martingale" to make a modest profit in pesos, important in percentage terms.
The regulations also had to focus on those who receive the IFE of 10,000 pesos per month . The Central Bank bureaucracy also needed to issue a statement clarifying that these potential buyers of dollars could continue to do so (at the rate of $ 100 per month, taking into account the exchange rate plus the 30% tax).
The important thing, apart from the official market that only companies access to pay imports or pay off debt, is what happens in the stock market. There the exchange rate is around 115 pesos. In the last wheels he had aimed downward for a specific reason: many investors turned to selling currency to make the necessary pesos to face the expiration of taxes on Personal Property, Profits and financial income (cedular) . As these maturities were postponed for two weeks, the sale of dollars contracted.
The future of the foreign exchange market depends, above all, on debt settlement. The analysts' impression is that if there is a settlement, the blue should cool down and perhaps narrow, above all, the gap between the official dollar and the MEP.
In a talk with investors from Quinquela Inversiones, the economist Federico Furiase pointed out that the current value of blue is equivalent to the first half dollar of 200 2 -out of convertibility- a value considered excessive and that would reflect what is known as “overshooting” . In your opinion, if there is an arrangement, the value of the parallel should drop.
By the opposite, without debt settlement, they say in the market, the gap between the official and the parallel would shoot up to unexpected levels.
The additional complication is that in a scenario of non-settlement, what would happen is that the settlement of foreign currency by exporters would be delayed as long as possible, and importers would increase the tendency to borrow in pesos to finance the purchase of dollars to the officer.
That is why everyone more than the dollar is watching the news that comes from the debt negotiation side. Bad news in that regard would be lethal. Everyone is betting on the arrangement.