Germany suffered an unprecedented 10.1% drop in gross domestic product in the second quarter and is experiencing its worst post-war recession due to the coronavirus pandemic, although a recovery is already looming. This " historic " plunge according to a press release Thursday from the Federal Statistical Office Destatis, attributed to "the consequences of the pandemic ", far exceeds the contraction of 4.7% in the first quarter of 2009, the peak of the financial crisis.
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The first European economy has suffered a multifaceted shock: the confinement decreed to slow the spread of Covid-19 has paralyzed production in many sectors, significantly slowed down trade and restrained consumption.
The heavily exporting German industry, already suffering before the pandemic due to international trade tensions and Brexit concerns, has been hit hard. In April, at the height of restrictions, manufacturing output fell 17.9%; industrial orders fell 25.8% and exports collapsed 31.1%. Tourism and aviation have also been permanently affected: the national champions TUI and Lufthansa had to call on the state to the rescue and announced several thousand job cuts. Compared to the second quarter of 2019, GDP is down 11.7% on an inflation-adjusted basis.
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But these figures, as striking as they are, are only a " glance in the rearview mirror ", while " the German economy has already recovered ", nuance Carsten Brzeski, economist of the bank ING. Benefiting from a better health situation than that of its neighbors, from May onwards Germany lifted most of its restrictive measures and revived its economy. A sign of stabilization, the unemployment rate remained at the same level in July as in June, at 6.4%, after three consecutive months of increase. A strong rebound is now expected by experts. “ The worst quarter could be followed by the best, ” says Brzeski.