Ismael Bermúdez
08/04/2020 - 10:43
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
Before the outbreak of the pandemic and quarantine , and despite increases sums still dependent workers and bonuses to pensioners with minimal assets and beneficiaries of AUH, at the beginning of the year again increased poverty (from 34 , 2 to 34.7%), and with greater indigence which, in one year, rose from 7.1 to 8.6%.
The poor urban population amounted to 34.7%, projecting at the national urban level the user bases of the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) for the first quarter, just released by INDEC. And with the pandemic, that higher level of poverty took a sharp jump in the second quarter to such an extent that specialists agree that it would have reached a floor of 45 to 47%, exceeding the 20 million poor . Among children, poverty would exceed 60%.
With these data, averaging 34.7% in the first quarter and 45/47 in the second quarter, poverty in the first half would have reached 40% of the urban population.
A year ago, poverty stood at 34.2% and at the beginning of 2018 at 25.5%. Meanwhile, indigence climbed to 8.6% against 7.1% a year ago and 4.9% in the first quarter of 2018.
The strongest increase in indigence is attributed to the fall in formal employment and the advancement of informal workers with lower wages and self-employed with changas, occasional jobs that, in addition, were left out of the extraordinary aid of the bonds.
This means that, out of an urban population of 41 million people, there were 14,200,000 poor people earlier this year, of whom 3,500,000 were urban destitute. And more than 15 million poor people, if the rural population is included.
Given these data and given the structure of the families, indigence among children under the age of 14 exceeded 14% and poverty was above 50% of the total. And by regions, northern Argentina and the Buenos Aires suburbs stand out again with the highest levels of income deprivation.
For the calculation of indigence and poverty, the data from the user base of the EPH take into account that in the first quarter of each year, among other factors, household income is charged with the payment of the Christmas bonus and holidays. And therefore they cannot be compared against those of the fourth quarter of the previous year. For these extraordinary income, in general the measurement of the first quarter shows lower figures than those of the previous quarter. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2019 it was 38.3%.
In addition, INDEC disseminates the poverty and indigence figures by semester as it is the most homogeneous comparison since, for example, in both periods the means of bonuses are perceived. The next INDEC report on poverty will be released in September and will cover the period January-June or the first half of this year.
Meanwhile, with that methodological qualification, the Department of Statistics and Censuses of the City of Buenos Aires publishes both social indicators both by quarter and by semester. And the data for the first quarter were in line with what is now emerging from INDEC.
Thus, before the coronavirus and quarantine emerged, the City of Buenos Aires started the year with a jump in the levels of poverty and indigence. The data for the first quarter of this year, with only 10 days of pandemic and quarantine, showed 118,000 more poor people in the Capital than a year ago , totaling 703,000 people. It is 22.9% of the total population of Buenos Aires that failed to cover the cost of a basic basket of goods and services compared to 19.1% in the first quarter of 2019. And indigence increased from 6% to 7.8%.
Of the 703,000 poor, 240,000 are indigent - 7.8% of the population of Buenos Aires - 56,000 more than a year ago, who did not cover the cost of a basic basket of food only.
They are the highest numbers since 2015, when the Buenos Aires Department of Statistics and Censuses began to measure living conditions in the Federal Capital.
This strong increase in indigence and poverty is explained by the deterioration of the living conditions of the population in the last two years as a consequence of several factors: falling real wages, deterioration of pensions and other social benefits, such as allowances. family, job losses, self-employment growth and informal jobs in a context of retraction of economic activity and falling purchasing power in the face of rising inflation.
The INDEC measurement is called income or monetary poverty because it takes into account the income of individuals and families and contrasts them against the value of the basic food basket and the total basic basket.
NE