Daniel Fernandez Canedo
08/15/2020 - 14:11
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
There are several economists and financial experts who consider that the"Blue" or parallel dollar has an exorbitant price.
It rose more than 70% in the year , more than doubling inflation, and being above $ 130 it determines that most of the products in Argentina are "cheap" in relation to what they cost in other countries of the region or the world.
For those experts, the "blue" has a "panic" price equivalent to the cost of a ticket to Noah's Ark (biblical story) to save themselves from the universal flood.
This figure would indicate in financial practice that the holders of the dollars, or the buyers of the US $ 200 per month allowed at a "solidarity" price, should be tempted to part with those bills to spend or invest the pesos.
The "mash" of buying the US $ 200 to $ 100 to sell them at $ 120 each month was transformed into a means to make a difference between the holders of a savings account and the "coleros" who could be buying on account of wholesalers (businesses informal, or political causes?) in the heat of the exchange rate.
He The Central Bank is very concerned , both about the amount these operations add up and the number of buyers, but it fears that if it cuts this operation, the "blue" shot could be even greater.
Of course, after the announcement of the agreement for the debt with the bondholders, the sale of dollars to convert to pesos before the "clearing of the financial horizon" did not take place. And the purchase of dollars continues long.
Meanwhile, these experts insist that the "blue" is expensive and believe at face value that it is time to save and invest in pesos. History contradicts them, because whoever bet on the dollar generally won, but in the current situation the pesos are in charge.
The Central Bank induces the placement of pesos and today the highest prize is to obtain the 38% per year paid by the famous Leliq (Liquidity Letters) for banks to place the pesos.
This scheme chosen by Miguel Angel Pesce (a staunch defender of the "crawling peg" system that rejects some "little jump" in the official dollar) consists of paying 38% to the banks so that they offer 33% per year to holders of pesos in order for them to put their money in time deposits.
The system is rounded off with the fact that banks pay 10% per year to wholesalers in remunerated checking accounts and place those funds in passes of the Central at 19% . And so a dam to contain pesos is being built so that silver does not go to the dollar.
The pressure from the Central is for the Treasury ofMartin Guzmanand private companies encourage the absorption of pesos. Also the provinces and municipalities. The banks jumped headlong into the bidding for funds from the City of Buenos Aires that offered Badlar (wholesale rate) plus six points as income, which rounded 38% of income, the same as the Leliq.
The fight to place pesos rests on three legs: 1) that the Central's strong issuance bathed the circulating market, 2) that rates above 30% could equal or beat the "quarantine inflation" of this year and 3) the idea that the government will try by all means to keep the dollar quiet with the system of daily updates.
Companies are also participating in the race for pesos and, especially, for subsidized rate loans. At 33% per annum cost, companies that can take all they can .
According to data from the Securities Commission, financing in the first semester of the year amounted to $ 271,640 million, 102% more than the previous year, with an increase of 180% in Negotiable Obligations and a 94% increase in check discounts.
The search for pesos, and especially those that come at subsidized rates, begins to spill over the activity of some sectors whose products were "cheap" measured by the parallel dollar. Some building materials are an example.
The dollar-rate bid , characteristic of recent economic history, is still fully in force as the exchange rate and the preference of Argentines for saving in dollars even though, in the current situation, pesos may offer advantages.
LGP