08/16/2020 - 20:50
Beyond the negative political impact that eliminating the possibility of the saving dollar would have, the Government knows that there are important economic issues when it comes to defining whether it is convenient to prohibit monthly purchases of up to US $ 200. They take them into account and reconfirm that They do not think to modify the scheme, according to official sources assured yesterday.
Although there were different positions within the Government, with a Central Bank more inclined to find ways to stop the drain on reserves and a Ministry of Economy more reluctant to move forward with the idea of stopping the sale of dollars to savers, the decision today It means leaving things as they are and not modifying the stocks that were put in place last year, still under the government of Mauricio Macri.
“Let's see how we continue. It is something that we have been talking about to see how we continue. But it does not go through deepening the closure, ”official sources assured Clarín yesterday .
As it turned out, the idea that Martín Guzmán had, of not touching the saving dollar , was reinforced after an exchange with one of his main advisers: the economist Daniel Heymann, a supporter of exchange rate stability, who would have highlighted the impact it could have on him. economically, modify the current scheme.
In itself, everyone in the Government today would like to take care of the dollars in the reserves and pour them fully into supplying the import of goods, necessary for the reactivation stage. But they know that tightening the stocks would imply a series of questions that would lead to an even worse scenario.
They see that financial dollars and the blue would rise more, the exchange gap would widen, expectations of devaluation would increase and the export sector would end up selling less foreign currency. The result? That the exchange market still has fewer dollars and that the Central Bank has to go out and sell with greater force than it did so far in August.
Government sources assured Clarín yesterday that they are targeting a normalized fiscal, financial and exchange rate scheme. “Now there are going to be three very important liability operations and then comes the budget law that is being sent to Congress on September 15. With this, we will define characteristics for the exchange rate regime in the direction of normalization ” , they stated.
In other words, there are two key issues for the coming weeks, particularly in September, and after which there could be news. On the one hand, the Ministry of Economy organized three debt auctions in dollars, for a total of US $ 1,500 million , through which it is expected that pressure will be removed from the exchange market.
These are operations that begin in September, of US $ 500 million each, with which it is sought to "exit" some foreign investors, such as Pimco. This fund has securities in pesos and, through operations with the dollar counted with settlement, it could sell its position in these instruments. This is the operation that the former Minister of Economy Roberto Lavagna criticized as "dollarizing."
The other aspect with which the Government trusts that it could “reassure” the exchange market a bit is the presentation of the 2021 Budget project. On September 15 it will be sent to Congress for its treatment and will contain the main macroeconomic projections for the next years, with the average dollar for next year included. These were some of the aspects that Guzmán spoke with the President at the meeting on Saturday.
Rumors of changes in the savings dollar scheme became strong last Thursday. And Clarín anticipated it exclusively.
After that, Alberto Fernández made some radio statements in which he expressed his concern about the issue and also the Deputy Chief of Staff, Cecilia Todesca, acknowledged that it was not possible to continue spending the dollars in savings “that go to the mattress and leave the system ”.
After these statements, on Saturday afternoon Economy sources (endorsed by the Presidency) assured that the current savings dollar operation continued. “ There are no changes . Those interested in such acquisitions will be able to continue doing so for up to US $ 200 per month ”, they assured.