A deep drop followed by a strong bounce. The third vice president of the Government and Minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, Nadia Calviño, reiterated this Monday that macroeconomic data suggest that the recovery has already arrived and that it is being intense, since in the third quarter of the year a double-digit GDP growth, above 10%, after the economy collapsed a historic 18.5% between April and June.
"What we see is that this recovery of the economy is already underway, with a clear turning point from the end of hibernation," said Calviño during his speech in the course The financial system in the Covid 19 crisis. Challenges and commitmentsfrom the Menéndez Pelayo International University, organized by the Association of Economic Information Journalists (APIE) and BBVA.
The forecast advanced by Calviño coincides with that of other organizations and analysis houses, such as that of BBVA Research, of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) ―which estimates a 15.2% rebound in the third quarter― or Funcas. And it is based on several indicators that point to a reactivation in recent months, such as the rise in spending with credit cards or the progressive decrease in workers affected by a temporary employment regulation file (ERTE), which have passed the peak from about 3.4 million to less than a million.
Still, the recovery will be incomplete and uneven. In the first half of the year, the Spanish economy has lost ground at a rate never seen in times of peace: the strict confinement imposed as of March, with the total closure of many activities, has led to a drop in GDP of 22% , a blow too strong to be fully compensated in the remainder of the year. In addition, many sectors continue to operate at half gas despite the de-escalation.
Calviño herself has recognized that the recovery is not taking place with the same intensity in all sectors or in all territories. "It is evident that there are areas, such as a part of the tourism sector, some segments of the hospitality industry, that are being hit harder" due to the drop in world demand and the restriction measures that are still in force to contain the spread of contagions, she said in her speech. Last week, he had left the door open to extend the ERTEs linked to covid-19 beyond September 30 - the currently scheduled deadline, whose extension will begin to be negotiated on Friday - after recognizing that some branches of activity such as the Tourism will continue to suffer more than others the effects of the pandemic on their business in the remainder of the year.
"But as a whole, the Spanish economy is evolving in accordance with the forecasts that the Government had, which since May we have been anticipating and predicting that the recovery will follow an asymmetric V pattern," Calviño insisted this Monday, "that is, with a very intense decline in the second quarter and a progressive recovery whose impetus will depend on continuing to control the outbreaks in this second part of the year ”. The Bank of Spain itself asked to "drastically" reinforce the traces to avoid a new, enormously costly confinement from an economic point of view.
Calviño has also pointed out that the labor market shows signs of improvement, and that a further increase in affiliation is expected in August, although he recalled that the last day of this month is usually negative for employment purposes - the data will be released on Wednesday-. Even so, the minister has announced that, between July and so far in August, "almost 333,000 members" have been added to the general regime and about 19,000 to the self-employed. Calviño added that, since April, 440,000 affiliated workers have been added to the general regime and 60,000 to the self-employed, "already close to the figures from before the state of alarm."