10/13/2020 7:48 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/13/2020 20:03
On Tuesday, October 13, the Central Bank was successful in the exchange test: it
did not lose dollars
in the resumption of operations of a tense docking day in the heat of the protest against the government the day before.
He bought $ 10 million.
But the relief could not be complete.
The rise in the dollar "counted with settlement" again triggered the
"gap"
that separates it from the official one to
102%
, a distance that continues to mark the degree of uncertainty with which the Argentine financial market operates these days.
The definitions of the deputy chief of staff, Cecilia Todesca, in Clarín opened a wide umbrella about the certainties that the Government has when it comes to thinking about the dollar problem that has stained the economy for months.
Todesca was clear that they think that the peso will continue to
devalue
as it has been up to now (tying the official dollar to inflation) and that with this "cap" an inflationary stampede would be avoided that would hit people's pockets and increase poverty.
Concepts such as "devaluations are contractive" or
"if all Argentines want to save in dollars the economy does not work"
marked the background of the official vision in which the problem is that there are not as many dollars as people demand.
In reality, the basic problem lies in the distrust of the peso rather than the strength of the dollar.
Dollars in the world are in excess and, in fact, these days it is
depreciating
due to the strong US issuance in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
But returning to the issue of the exchange rate gap, the key is in how the government intends to
reduce it from 102%
in which it has been galloping as a result of an official wholesale dollar of $ 77.43 and a "cash with settlement" (CCL) of
$ 156.27
.
Economists often say that with this photograph the demand for the official dollar is "infinite" on the understanding that it is an asset that is relatively backward.
A consequence of this reality and with the dollar being "blue" at $ 160, which could be considered expensive, is that there is a demand for "substitutes" for the dollar, which are those products that have incorporated parts or parts valued at the official dollar.
Typical cases are the
upswing in the sale of cars or motorcycles,
bicycles, electrical appliances as a consequence of the fact that holders of pesos look for goods that contain "cheap" dollars.
Those defensive decisions with the paradox of
believing to save
when in reality it
is consumed
are part of the package of consequences that spills out such a wide exchange gap.
The abc of these decisions are the responsibility
of producers who retain grains or exporters
who postpone liquidations pending a devaluation, while importers rush to buy inputs and goods abroad for fear of this possible exchange rate jump.
One of the peculiarities of the current crisis is given that technically
the official dollar is not lagging in
front of inflation and other indicators but the negative expectations coming from politics, and the comings and goings of the economy, put together a
devaluation cocktail.
One way to calm the waters is to reduce the exchange gap and the Government's proposal in the mouth of Cecilia Todesca is to have
"patience."
Even when?
In the official speech it is until the dollars arrive from the field.
Either for the US $ 2 billion that could arrive in the next three months as a response to the temporary reduction of withholdings or those that would be liquidated in April (an eternity in the middle of the pandemic) soy exporters.
The dilemma is that with only a devaluation the economy does not start but with a 100% exchange gap, neither.
Are there experiences of economies that maintained 100% exchange rate gaps for a long time?
Yes, says the economist
Marina Dal Poggetto:
"the one in Venezuela but there the dollars are from the State" and here they belong
to the producers and savers.
Of course, when President Alberto Fernández talks about the fact that dollars should "be used for production", he is far from reassuring the spirit of currency holders.
The Central Bank practically knocked out the quota of US $ 200 per month that retailers can buy.
Of the more than 4.7 million buyers who signed up in August, some
3 million were unable to do so in October
.
The dribbling was noticeably reduced and the defensive strategy for the reserves would allow him to continue "shooting" for a while.
In this "pulling" process, it will be necessary to include the balance between the issuance of pesos to finance the deficit and its impact on the dollar and inflation and the official need to generate attractive mechanisms so that people feel tempted to sell their dollars and earn with the weights.
Until that turnaround occurs and the economic horizon can be cleared of clouds and political tension reduced, Todesca will be right with his saying that if everyone wants dollars, this economy will not start.
But it is worth repeating that the problem is the peso, the dollar is alive and well.