Gustavo Bazzan
10/17/2020 9:06 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/17/2020 9:23 PM
It is more than likely that this week the government will formalize a
relaxation
of the exchange operation known as
"dollar counted with liquidation"
, as the Minister of Economy,
Martín Guzmán
, anticipated on Thursday at the Idea colloquium
.
What the market expects is that it will return to the current operating mode until last September 15, when operations could be completed in three days (and not five as before) and
“non-resident”
investors
had permission to operate , not like now, who are excluded from that market.
As is known, the restrictions did nothing more than
overheat
the foreign exchange market.
The Cash With Liqui was around
$ 130 pesos
the day before the regulations in mid-September.
This Wednesday it reached
$ 168
and closed at
$ 165
on Friday
, perhaps due to the effect of Guzmán's announcement.
That
30%
jump in a month reflected the nervousness of investors who want to
go from pesos to dollars,
especially non-residents.
The bets of the h
edge funds
were to be able to get out at a not so high price by buying the
bond in dollars in Argentine law
that Guzmán promised to issue as soon as the exchange operation concluded.
The plan agreed with the large funds, including
PIMCO
, was to carry out three tenders for a total of
US $ 1.5 billion
.
The appeal for PIMCO and other funds: the dollar bond could be paid with bills and bonds in pesos issued by the Treasury.
The collapse of the swap bonds, which went from
yielding 11% per year to 15 or 16% per year,
disrupted the plans.
It would have been unfeasible to take new debt, above in dollars, at that interest rate, when the guiding idea of the economic team is to stop issuing debt in dollars.
The amount of money of those who want to leave for the "counted with liqui" was dimensioned by the authorities in an amount of pesos equivalent to
7,000 million dollars.
In the market they believe that the figure is somewhat lower, but just as shocking: 5,000 million dollars.
And it is not just about non-residents, but about Argentines who want to have dollars, and have them outside the country.
With the operation stuck, that is, without liquidity, the logical thing is that the price would rise, in a typical
door effect 12.
The other reason why Guzmán wants a more relaxed “counted with liquid” operation is because
on November 21 there is a mega debt maturity in pesos for about 170,000 million
, equivalent, today, to 1,000 million dollars.
In addition, bills for another $ 160,000 million mature.
If the owners of those bonds or bills in pesos, seeing the silver that they have lost due to the soaring of alternative dollars, seek to exit the peso market due to a locked CCL,
the price can jump even higher
.
One option that the market is considering is to cut this maturity with
a new dollar linked bond
, that is, a bond in pesos but adjusted by the official exchange rate.
These bonds are a hedge for institutional investors and a bet for those who want to "capture" the devaluation or for an acceleration of the rate of devaluation.
Last week, Economía issued a bond for the equivalent of
1.7 billion dollars.
The economy and the Central Bank are convinced that with the new rate hike that they established since Thursday, the exchange market should calm down.
The project of tax exemptions for certain operations in pesos, they believe in the Government, should also take pressure off the exchange rate.
The official vision is that you have to go
through two hard months
until the end of the year the dollars of the
fine harvest
begin to arrive
.
For now they are not satisfied with the volume of dollars that the cereal companies settled for the exports of grains and derivatives.
President Alberto Fernández himself complained.
One in favor: wheat hit the
highest price in almost six years
on the
Chicago
Stock Exchange on Friday
.
The Government, likewise, struggles with skepticism from the market in general and from grain producers in particular:
the gap
between the official dollar and the parallel is an invitation not to sell grain to cereal companies.
They prefer to sit and wait for the devaluation that Alberto Fernández and Martín Guzmán denied this week.
Look also
Dollar: official obsession with the "counted with liqui" and the US $ 7,000 million that would be looking for the exit door
Idea Colloquium: crisis of confidence, the common diagnosis of Martín Redrado and Hernán Lacunza