10/20/2020 10:45 AM
Updated 10/20/2020 10:45 AM
On January 2 of this year, the blue dollar was sold at $ 75. Although it already had three months of exchange rate on it, it was
trading below the savings dollar
, which at the start of 2020 cost $ 82. Now the informal arrived to $ 181 - it went up 141% -, savings increased 67%, to $ 137 - including the 35% surcharge on Profits - and the gap between blue and wholesaler
went to 132%.
Despite the multiple measures with which it has sought to reassure the market, the Government so far has not been able to break the resistance of investors and savers to bet on the peso.
And even at off-scale prices, the dollar maintains its magnet.
Why can't the blue find a roof?
Why can't the blue find a roof?
There are seven reasons that push the price.
The reinforced stocks
As of September 15, when the Government decided to tighten the stocks to stop the outflow of foreign currency and narrow the exchange gap, which at that time
, Murphy's law was once again fulfilled in Argentina.
The greater restrictions, which left three out of four people out of the saving dollar, only increased hunger for blue and brought the gap to the
In addition, the stocks complicated access to financial dollars, legal operations to obtain foreign currency, avoiding the monthly quota of US $ 200. With more obstacles, the cash with liquid (CCL) and the dollar the MEP rose 31% and 25%, respectively, in a market with low volume and high volatility.
Each rally in the CCL -which some days was trading above the blue- gave new impetus to the informal segment.
Now with the new measures, the Government is committed to making financial dollars more fluid
The supply shortage
With the access roads to the dollar closed, the higher demand for the blue hit the wall of scarce supply.
The natural suppliers were foreign tourists, who were better off selling their tickets in the informal to obtain more pesos than they took out in the official.
With the pandemic, that slope dried up.
To this was added that in the face of so much uncertainty, local ticket holders are more willing to hoard than to sell.
Without that fuel, persistent demand pushes price.
That September 15, in which the stocks were strengthened, was also the day the Government presented the Budget for 2021, with an estimate of the public deficit of 4.5% of GDP.
For the markets this implies that the Government will continue to have a strong dependence on the monetary issue to finance itself.
In fact, the emission is expected to reach 7% of GDP next year.
Many pesos turning and few interested in hoarding them.
The higher the emission and the higher the deficit, the fewer strong fiscal signals that invite confidence that there is a comprehensive plan to reverse the crisis once the pandemic ends.
The fall in reserves
From the stocks, the fall in the Central Bank's reserves reaches US $ 1.7 billion.
With gross reserves at US $ 40,000 million, the attention is focused on how many are the net reserves, the true firepower that the entity chaired by Miguel Pesce has to fulfill the word of President Alberto Fernández that there will be no devaluation.
According to market estimates, that amount is around
US $ 6 billion
Despite the super stocks, the Central had to sell US $ 1 billion in the last month to supply a market with few suppliers.
The three point drop in withholdings was not a sufficient incentive for the liquidations of agro-exporters to reach the level that the Government expected.
Thus, all auctions to the exchange arc have to be stopped by Pesce.
The rise in country risk
The stocks were announced days after the debt swap closed.
Due to the success of the negotiation and with the arrival of the new bonds, the country risk had a significant drop: it went from the range of 2,100 basis points to 1,200 points.
But from the stocks, it
climbed again and is now over 1,400 points
The country risk reflects the evolution of Argentine bonds, which after the exchange had reached a yield of 11%, but with the uncertainty generated by the stocks, they rose again and are now in the 15/16% zone. exit yield ", the more difficult it is for Argentina to re-issue debt at reasonable rates in the medium term, a necessary condition for the country to be able to fulfill the commitments assumed in the exchange.
This doubles the uncertainty and increases the onslaught to get currency coverage regardless of price.
Every week, front-line officials have to come out and say that the official dollar - at $ 77.5 in the wholesale segment - is not behind and that there will be no devaluation.
To each statement, blue responds with a new rise, in a sign that economic agents hope that sooner rather than later, the gap will begin to close in favor of the informal one.
With the measures announced in the last hours by Minister Martín Guzmán, the pressure on the market could be decompressed, at least temporarily.
But analysts warn that even if it works, the solution will be partial.
"Without an economic plan, the uncertainty continues and the pressure on the dollar returns," says Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, economist at the EcoGo consultancy.
With the blue dollar on the rise, consumers intensify stocks in the face of devaluation expectations
Martín Guzmán announced new exchange measures to lower pressure on the free dollar