A no-deal Brexit could cost 33 billion euros to European exports in 2021, and first penalize Germany, the Netherlands and France, according to a study by Euler Hermès published on Tuesday as post-trade negotiations Brexit seem more bogged down than ever.
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The note would be much less salty in the event of the United Kingdom's orderly exit from the European Union, the shortfall for European exporters being estimated in this case at 18 billion euros, analyzes the credit insurer.
In the event of a "
hard Brexit
", that is to say the reinstatement of customs duties between the 27 and London on January 1, export losses could reach 8.2 billion euros in Germany, 4 8 billion in the Netherlands and 3.6 billion in France.
In the event of a “
soft Brexit
”, the ranking remains the same, but with an impact for these three countries almost halved.
In France, the transport and equipment sector would bear 20% of this charge, followed by chemicals, machinery and electrical equipment, and the food sector (including drinks, alcohol and tobacco), up to 10%.
On the British side, an exit without a free trade agreement with the EU could lead to a decline in GDP of nearly 5% in 2021, a drop in the pound of 10% and inflation "
above 5% for at least six month
”.
Indeed, the prices of imported goods should increase due to the increase in customs duties, which should reach 2.6% on average, but also an increase, estimated at 10%, in the cost of "
non-customs barriers
", Ana Boata, head of macroeconomic research at Euler Hermès, told AFP.
"
Non-customs barriers are administrative formalities, in order to ensure that goods comply with European Union or WTO regulations, but also the cost and time of transport, which will be lengthened
" which whatever the scenario, without forgetting "
the destruction of the value chain if we do not have the inputs (element entering into the production of a good, Editor's note) on time,
" she explained.
An "
invisible cost which will take time to be absorbed
", according to her.
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British production is in fact very dependent on inputs, which should limit the gain in competitiveness expected from leaving the European Union.
For example, if the 10% depreciation of the pound which could result from a “
hard Brexit
” will make British exports cheaper, it will also increase the import costs of intermediate goods.