Figaro
132 billion euros of public deficit are announced in 2021, after 227 billion this year.
Despite expected growth for 2021 of nearly 8%, the balances of all general government should still be in the red.
Read also: Can France get out of the crisis without increasing taxes?
But what should especially attract attention is the breakdown of this public balance.
There are two kinds: one to assess its "
structural
", that is to say "
sustainable
" part, located outside the effects of the economic cycle;
the other to deliver the contribution of the different sectors of public administration (State, operators, local authorities, social security) at its general level.
A very degraded structural deficit in France
The structural deficit… This famous deficit that we have to deplore, whatever the economic situation.
The High Council of Public Finances underlined the underestimation of the structural deficit of France.
Why ?
The estimates of the structural deficit are made from estimates made under the 2018-2022 public finance programming law, which is totally obsolete.
The structural deficit would therefore be more like 2 points of GDP in 2020 instead of the 1.2 displayed in the budget law.
More serious, in 2021, this structural deficit would approach 5 points of GDP against -3.6 points officially.
5 points of structural deficit, that means more than 100 billion annual recurring deficit.
A situation of deterioration of our finances very worrying yet never reached.
The State concentrates the deficits
It is the state that concentrates most of the deficits.
The State's balance in 2020 appears to be particularly deep (-8.7% of GDP) due to SNCF's takeover of debt (1.1 points).
In 2021, the state deficit would be -5.5% of GDP.
A fairly credible figure.
Exaggerated optimism about future local government spending
With regard to local administrations (communities and their satellites), the crisis seems to have had very little impact on their overall situation despite the difficult and contrasting specific cases in the field.
Their balance is expected at -0.1% of GDP in 2020 (-2.2 billion euros) and almost break even for 2021 (-1.1 billion euros).
The dynamism of the tax bases (property taxes) would make it possible to limit revenue losses, while the reduction in production taxes in 2021 (10 billion) should be fully offset by the allocation of VAT points.
The government anticipates that spending would be contained, but this is hard to believe on the RSA component, for example for the departments.
As for revenues, those related to property transfer rights could well decline.
The balance of the accounts of local authorities is more than uncertain.
A Social Security with a 25 billion deficit in 2021? Unlikely
With a surplus (+ 0.6% of GDP) in 2019, social security (especially via the hospital) would see its deficit plunge to -2.6% of GDP in 2020 to recover to -1% of GDP in 2021 (i.e. from -57.5 billion to -25 billion euros).
This estimate seems very optimistic to us, based on a very strong rebound in social revenues of nearly + 40.5 billion euros in 2021 and a limitation of spending drift to only +7.9 billion euros.
This is based on the growth forecast which could unfortunately turn out to be less powerful than expected (OECD, IMF, Banque de France).
There are therefore strong presumptions that France's 2021 deficit will be above the expected 132 billion.
Figaro
The Macronometer, an observatory of government reforms, is a site of the iFRAP Foundation in partnership with
Le Figaro
.
It is a tool dedicated to the evaluation of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term: econometric evaluation in relation to his electoral program and the announcements of his government.
With Le Macronomètre, the government's action is rated out of 10 every Wednesday during the Council of Ministers and becomes readable at a glance.
The Macronometer allows everyone to form an opinion on whether or not the President of the Republic's promises are kept and on the effectiveness of the government's reforms.