Is it true that the soaring of the dollar "blue" does not impact the economy?

10/20/2020 8:16 PM

• Clarín.com

• Economy

Updated 10/20/2020 8:52 PM

Experts agree that when it exceeded $ 180, the parallel dollar reached an exuberant level but no one dares to predict

.

According to the economist

the level of "blue" is that of a

that is not explained only because some of the main economic variables are misaligned but, basically, due to the lack of confidence in the political context of Argentina today .

From the Government, the Minister of Economy took a step contrary to the closing of the exchange rate that the Central Bank had been applying for months.

Martín Guzmán reduced requirements to buy and sell dollars through dollarized securities and shares (counted with liquidation), and enabled foreign companies to operate (they were prohibited in the understanding that they only wanted to escape capital), trying to

of free dollars.

But

for the Government.

The "counted with liquid" rose 4.1% closing at $ 171.85 and the stock market dollar ended at $ 161 after climbing 4.9%.

On the first day, Guzmán's measures would have contributed

than to the sale of foreign currency.

It is difficult to think of a significant increase in supply in a context of uncertainty like the current one.

The first response of the market to Martín Guzmán's measures to stop the rise in the pound dollar was negative.

In the last month the

rose 28%, while the "counted with liquid" did so by 16% and the wholesale official grew 2.6%, running behind inflation in October.

The paradoxical Argentina contradicts the rules of the economy that support the convenience of

.

The dollar rises and demand continues to exceed supply.

Thus the

and keeps all the warning lights on on the board of economic decisions.

In the latest Eco Go report,

referring to the distance between the different types of dollar, points out: 

without inflationary consequences."

And that is why the official concern is understood despite the fact that Martín Guzmán, like several of his predecessors in office, has resorted to the commonplace of maintaining that the parallel dollar is a 

and that it does not matter when it comes to fixing prices since Argentine foreign trade is governed by the official dollar.

Guzmán respects formality, but the real economy has already begun to move in step with the expectation that the devaluation of the peso may be greater at some point in the near future.

Increase in the sale of

, reluctance in the sale of

and durable goods with high imported content and, therefore, valued at the official dollar, or

in products with imported components due to the uncertainty about the replacement dollar, they are just some examples of an economy that begins to move based on a dollar higher than the official one.

The other side of this movement is a Central Bank that managed

but was injured.

The sale of dollar savings (monthly quota of US $ 200 per person) which in August had represented

, in September was US $ 600 and this month would drop to

.

Due to the super stock, the sale of dollar savings would drop from US $ 800 million in August to US $ 200 million this month.

That trickle closed considerably but would have come when some of the damage from the currency outflow was done.

In his talk at UCEMA University, Arriazu said that according to his calculations the liquid reserves of the Central Bank

and Dal Poggetto in his report stated: "The remaining reserves are not liquid, and the liquid reserves they are using they are not their own, they are

in dollars ".

The Central, borrowing reserve requirements from foreign currency deposits (there are US $ 15.85 billion) suggests that the dollars that the exporters promised to liquidate have

yet

.

Or at least that's how they are seeing it in Central.

While attention is focused on the dollar and the real incentives for investment remain absent, the gaze of economists remains on the amount of pesos that

the Government will

have to

to fill the deficit in public accounts.

The

project

contemplates that $ 1.2 trillion of the $ 1.7 trillion of the Treasury deficit be covered with issuance.

Many pesos for an economy that does not have the vocation to demand them and that when thinking about protection resorts to the dollar.

Although without fanfare, between the market and important referents of the ruling party, what in mathematics is known as

with respect to the situation with the dollar

was generated

.

While Máximo Kirchner, head of the Frente de Todos en Diputados, accuses that "the markets want to continue governing, but they have to understand that the

" the shortage of Central Bank reserves and the exchange gap would not be giving him the right reason.

Precisely, the Eco Go report raises the case of Venezuela where the management of the external sector has been strictly in the hands of the Government for years.

He concludes that "the drift in Venezuela includes a GDP that has accumulated a

and a price dynamic that has already been three years with inflation rates well above 50% per month (the traditional definition of hyperinflation) and an

Let's hope that is not the Argentine future.