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The government is wrong in estimating the cost of the capsules - why?

According to the Ministry of Finance, learning capsules in grades 1-2 will cost the state about NIS 6 billion.

This claim is based on inaccurate estimates, ignoring possible revenues and other factors.

Avichai Snir wonders why

Tags

• Corona

• Ministry of Finance

• Capsules

Avichai Snir

Friday, 30 October 2020, 00:59

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In the video: A representative of the Ministry of Health refers to the State Audit Committee on the outline for returning to school (Photo: Knesset Channel)

The government claims that it is not possible to divide the students into capsules because it will cost NIS 6 billion, and the state does not have the money.

This sounds like a very serious claim, one that comes from someone who checked the data, did a cost-benefit calculation and came to the scholarly conclusion that NIS 6 billion is too much money for capsule studies.

This claim is wrong from every possible direction.

First, the claim is wrong because it probably will not cost NIS 6 billion.

I highly doubt if anyone has really checked how much it will cost to produce capsules in schools.

In my opinion, the number of NIS 6 billion is exactly the same as NIS 3 billion or NIS 12 billion.

From what I hear from the Ministry of Finance, the people there are constantly busy producing numbers.

What is the cost of closing barbershops?

What is the cost of closing gyms?

And because they need to produce the numbers quickly, depending on what employs the politicians at a given moment, those numbers are not always based on thorough investigation.

They are based on a look at a few reports, a little math, and a lot of common sense from whoever produces the number. The number of NIS 6 billion probably comes from the same place.

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The amount would have been swallowed up in the deficit

We have a prime minister and a finance minister who, in a moment's decision, approved sending a check for NIS 750 to every person in Israel.

The total cost of these checks was about NIS 6.5 billion, of which maybe one billion went to people who were actually harmed by the corona.

Second, because opening schools, unlike many other government expenditures in recent times, is an action that also has a profit.

An orderly opening of schools would have freed more parents to go to work, and would therefore have generated more revenue for the state.

An investment of NIS 6 billion in opening the schools will lead to an increase in the deficit of only NIS 4-5 billion this year, a large part of which will be offset against revenues next year.

Even if they do not offset, it really is not terrible.

After all, we have a prime minister and a finance minister who, in a moment's decision, approved sending a check for NIS 750 to every person in Israel.

The total cost of these checks was about NIS 6.5 billion, of which perhaps one billion went to people who were actually harmed by the corona.

So spending NIS 5 billion is fine, but spending NIS 6 billion on education is a lot?

In any case, the government deficit will increase by about NIS 140 billion this year.

If it had grown by NIS 146 billion, no one would have noticed.

Third, the government has already approved a great deal of spending for all sorts of different and weird purposes.

It has approved tens of billions of shekels in compensation for businesses, hundreds of millions in favor of training the unemployed, and a great deal more money for a long list of purposes.

Because of bureaucracy, and because of quarrels between the various government ministries (another reason why too many government ministries are not a good thing), a large part of the money is still stuck in the safe.

These are funds that the government has already approved to spend, but is not succeeding.

If the government wanted, it could transfer the money in favor of capsules in education.

In this way, there was no increase in the planned expenditures of the state, simply a shift of budgets from one goal to another.

So it is not the money that prevents the opening of studies in capsules.

I wonder why no one in the government is willing to say what the real reason is.

Maybe because the possibilities are either inability, or unwillingness.

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