Martin Bidegaray
10/31/2020 8:53 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/31/2020 8:53 PM
The government has already confirmed that there will be increases in electricity and gas rates in December.
However, the subsidies to contain those bills will reach a record
$ 623.682 million next year.
These are the highest grants in history measured in pesos.
In dollars, on the other hand, it
is similar to US $ 6,000 million
(at an official dollar of $ 102 that the next budget estimates)
Transportation will take $ 182,713 million in the case of groups.
The figure for
trains
is not yet defined, since the item does not come from the Ministry of Transport, but from another box (Obligaciones del Tesoro del Gobierno Nacional).
In total
, it will be $ 805,855 million
in subsidies.
They represent
2.2% of GDP, a level similar to those of 2020.
However, due to the continuous budget reallocations,
the figures may rise
.
It is what is happening this year.
All the items for subsidies initially planned have
already been exhausted,
so the Government will spend more than it imagined.
Although there is no official confirmation from the Executive Power, official sources slide that, as announced for electricity and natural gas rates,
an increase in bus tickets will
also
be needed
.
The Government is evaluating whether to do it in February or mid-2021.
During the
2016-2019
period
, with the strong rate increases,
the weight of energy subsidies on the total GDP
was reduced
, with the consequent
fiscal savings
in this regard.
Now, the subsidies are beginning to eat up a larger part of the budget, as happened in the two terms of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as president.
Energy subsidies represented
between 1.2% and 1.1% of GDP between 2017 and 2019
, due to the effect of the rate increase.
It was the period with the lowest energy subsidies since 2010, according to a
Congressional Budget Office
analysis of the
2021 Budget bill numbers.
Transportation subsidies were more stable.
In 2014 they reached 0.9% of GDP, but then they fell.
In 2019, the previous administration transferred transportation costs to the provinces, and this produced a drop in the incidence of total national spending.
Group subsidies represented 0.4% of total GDP.
By 2021, aid to transport would capture 0.5% of GDP
.
Given that the main cost of the groups is salaries, and that they increase every year, the system is likely to become more expensive.
If the level of subsidies is stable, the only way to bear higher costs is with
some transfer to tariffs
, according to specialists.
Cammesa will eat $ 446,000 million from the public budget
.
The state-controlled wholesale company will demand these funds to pay for electricity generation.
The distributors are unable to pay, with their own funds, the cost of electricity generation.
"It is contemplated that the coverage of the electricity cost financed through the rates paid by users will reach
43% in 2021,
marking a decrease with respect to
the 55% coverage estimated for 2020,"
says the Budget Office.
The government will increase rates by an average of 30%, with peaks of 60% for higher income sectors.
Still, the state will continue to subsidize most of the costs.
For gas there will be more than $ 170,000 million
.
The budget assumes a decreasing price.
IEASA (the former Enarsa) will require $ 63,773 million to cover the difference between the import price of gas - either through LNG-powered ships or the agreement with Bolivia.
and the amount with which that gas is dispatched in the domestic market.
There will be $ 71 billion in production subsidies
.
That goes for the
Gas plan
of the previous government - a resolution that rewarded what was obtained in unconventional fields - and the new "2020-2024 Scheme".
The latter has already been presented twice, but the decree that regulates the final prices has not yet appeared.
There will be another $ 34,545 million to subsidize the "demand for natural gas."
This would be what the distributors cannot pay with their own resources, and that the State will subsidize.
Congressional analysis divides the trajectory of subsidies into
four stages
.
Between 2010 and 2014 they rose (from 1.4% of GDP to 2.8%) due to the freezing of tariffs and the growth of imports, both in quantity and price.
Between 2015 and 2016 they fell slightly (to 2.6% of GDP) due to an increase in gas production, which allowed a decrease in imports, accompanied by a fall in the price of these imports.
Between 2017 and 2019, subsidies fell sharply.
Even below 2010.
That was due to higher local production, and rate increases
.
These increases
closed the gap between energy costs and what is paid by the consumer of electricity and gas
.
In 2020, there is an increase in subsidies again.
This is due to
devaluations
-which increase energy costs, since part of it is tied to the dollar- and the government's decision
not to transfer it to tariffs
.
In any case, Congress's analysis of the 2020 figures, on which it makes comparisons, could be wrong.
For the current fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated an outlay of $ 463,974 for energy subsidies.
Until September, $ 331,387 million had already been allocated.
Cammesa, the electricity system wholesaler, has already consumed $ 242,336 million in 2020, which represents an increase of 170% compared to 2019, according to calculations by ASAP's Fiscal Analysis department.
The Congressional Budget Office places its annual spending at $ 323,096 million.
Between October and December, you should spend $ 80 billion to be within the measurements.
However, Cammesa spent $ 60 billion in September.
At the same rate, between October and December it will consume $ 180,000 million.
That's $ 100 billion more than the budget estimates.
In addition, December is usually a month of high electricity subsidies, so that $ 60,000 million monthly average could be less than what will be needed.