Martin Bidegaray
11/05/2020 11:05
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 11/05/2020 13:06
The current rates for public services, from electricity to transportation, are not enough to pay the cost of them.
The State, through subsidies, takes care of the difference between what users pay and what those services cost.
The national government will allocate
more than $ 805,000 million during 2021
to cover this gap.
The State subsidizes the rates in different magnitudes.
In
buses and transport
, users pay
less than 10% of the cost
of the system, since the government takes care of the remaining 90%, according to a study by the Congressional Budget Office.
In the
electricity and gas
bills
, users pay the same amounts since April 2019. This implies that
the State is subsidizing them between 50% and 60% of the cost
of these services.
The invoicing of the companies, through the invoices, is not enough to cover the expenses.
In Aysa, the state provider of water and sewer service, they say that "the state today covers the differential in costs and income, but does not subsidize bills."
However, some specialists dispute that characterization and assume that
there is a 30% subsidy
to avoid increases in the ballots.
"At the very least, there is all the inflation this year that is not moving," they observe.
By 2021, Aysa will have a generous budget for "works", but that money could also end up being used for subsidies, according to an expert consulted.
AySA works in Escobar.
The utility rates come with subsidies from the exit of the convertibility.
It is estimated that only for a decade (between 1991 and 2001) companies were able to cover their costs.
From there, governments preferred to increase public spending to companies applying increases.
The previous administration (of Mauricio Macri) authorized important rate increases, and thus achieved that users will also pay a higher percentage of the costs of electricity and gas that they consume in their homes.
But that process stopped in 2019.
Subsidies, from highest to lowest
The biggest recipient of subsidies is the transportation system
.
The State is responsible for
90% of the costs
of buses and trains in Buenos Aires.
That means that people only cover 10% of the expenses necessary to travel with what they pay with their SUBE cards.
The estimate is from the Congressional Budget Office.
The Government will allocate $ 182,000 million to subsidize transportation in 2021. Almost $ 100,000 million is for buses and the rest for trains.
Between 2016 and 2019, the fare paid by passengers never covered more than 40% of the costs.
Although the ticket increased between 500% and 600% in that period, that served so that the subsidies did not continue to rise, but did not change the trend.
Now, with only 29% occupancy in the transportation system, the cost to the State has increased.
What the companies collect is not enough to cover 10% of their expenditures.
The average cost of transportation is measured according to an equation made by the Faculty of Economic Sciences.
The bus lines in Buenos Aires are divided into three groups (those that circulate only in the city, those that go from the Conurbano to the City, and those that connect two points of the Conurbano), with similar costs.
Between salaries, fuel and vehicles, 80% of your expenses go.
In 2019, according to the analysis of legislative experts, bus fares covered 36% of costs and the State took care of the rest.
But now, for the quarantine, the Government is paying 91%.
This is because the costs remain almost fixed - the groups kept most of their frequencies - but the number of passengers dropped.
The urban transport lines and trains hardly collect.
The allowance per agent (bus driver or line employee) rose from $ 69,000 in 2018 to more than $ 170,000 in quarantine.
The
grant per passenger
had
the
same trajectory
: from $ 18 in 2018 to $ 60 now.
By 2021, the government's expectation is that the subsidy -above the total cost- will once again approach two-thirds, as in 2019. For that, it needs to rebuild the number of passengers.
And probably some increase in travel prices as well.
Likewise, there is a "progressive deterioration in the performance indicators of the sector", according to the analysis of Congress.
The system is getting more and more expensive,
but that doesn't translate to quality.
Electricity and gas
Although there is an announced rate hike (on electricity and gas), state subsidies will make customers pay
less than half of the costs.
In electricity distribution, the bills will justify 43% of the costs.
The national government will be responsible for 57% of the bill,
according to the legislative estimate.
In 2015, the “wholesale cost coverage by invoice” was 32% national, according to the Budget Office.
From there it could be deduced that the State subsidized 68% of the cost.
But that figure was higher in Buenos Aires, approaching 90%.
That was because the provinces allowed increases to the electricity distribution companies in their territories, but the national government prevented Edenor and Edesur, which operate in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area.
Since 2016, with the increases in the bills, the percentage of the electricity cost paid by the State began to decrease: it went from 58% in 2016 to 31% in 2019.
But then that trajectory froze
, because the Government did not authorize more increases since February 2019. This year, it is estimated that the State subsidizes 45% of the total electricity cost, but that will escalate to 57% in 2021. At some point, it will return to the same levels of 2016, when the first increases were authorized.
State subsidies on the gas bill seem more difficult to anticipate.
Imported gas, which Ieasa (the former Enarsa) buys with a state subsidy, is a
volatile
commodity
.
This year it was in decline, so imports were less onerous than in previous years.
Gas rates are frozen.
The government said that they will increase according to inflation.
Photo: Andres D'Elia
In March 2016, prior to the increases, the Ministry of Energy estimated that 81% of the gas tariff was subsidized by the State.
For 2018, that same management considered that the subsidy
had dropped to 31% of the total
, as a consequence of the different rate increases.
Since April 2019, the bills have not risen, and that generated another growing weight of subsidies, although it is difficult to determine in advance, according to specialists.
Due to the freeze, no less than half of the cost of the gas bill is absorbed by the national State, although that figure causes divergences.
To calculate it, you have to look at other indicators.
For 2021, the Budget Office calculated a subsidy of US $ 2.4 per million BTU (the sector's unit of measurement), with a dollar at $ 92. However, that level of subsidy was questioned by several energy specialists consulted by
Clarín
.
"That number is low, the subsidy is higher,"
specified two experts.
NE
Look also
Edesur: "Without fees, without subsidies and without rules, miracles cannot be performed"
In 2021 there will be no cuts in subsidies, despite the rate increases to come
Energy: ten months of persistent deterioration