More poverty on a destroyed economy that lost 3.4 million jobs

12/05/2020 1:49 PM

• Clarín.com

• Economy

Updated 12/05/2020 1:51 PM

You can start at the beginning, in the middle or at the end and also cross the information from one side to the other, because many variables explain each other.

But what will not be modified in any of the exercises is the result, that is, a very

, which will limit any improvement during 2021 and which will already spice up the electoral year.

All or a large part of this plot appears, with numbers that are also details, in a report from the Central Bank.

Added to the drag deterioration, the table

and the way the Government faced it, with quarantine blows.

Some of the hardest and most disturbing data can be found in the chapter dedicated to examining the employment situation, in which it is possible to find among other things:

─That compared to the same period of 2019, during the second quarter of this year

were

, that is, that due to the mixture of economic crisis, confinement and transport blockages, 3.4 million people were they were out of work from one year to the next.

And if we add those who had already lost it, the account ends in a zone of 5 million something.

─44

, that is, unstable, without legal protection, without retirement guarantees and very poorly paid.

And 29%, self-employed or a little more of the same.

─A detail that is like a lot of details reveals that half of those who are in a similar situation

, which is equivalent to saying population at risk and at risk of a re-outbreak of the virus.

Another reports that 25% of the total live in the heart of the always neglected, unprotected Greater Buenos Aires.

In case it is necessary to emphasize it, the

inequality on social inequality.

With the magnifying glass looking at the panorama facing Latin America and the Caribbean, the World Bank has predicted that the progress achieved in the last 14 years will be erased in the region and that, thus, it will regress to the parameters of 2006.

Is it possible to draw an inverse parallel between the projection of the World Bank and the climb that poverty hit here, until reaching the 44.2% that the Catholic University has just estimated.

That is, wondering

, an unenviable percentage by the way that occurred in the last year of considerable economic growth.

Precisely, in light of our current hardships, a comment included in the BCRA report says: "This scenario could have been even more adverse if measures aimed at rebuilding income and sustaining employment had not been implemented."

True, although at the wrong time.

The measures were the

, which subsidized about 9 million very low-income people, and the

, which covered part of the salaries and sustained the employment of some 2.4 million workers.

The problem is that both regimes are on the way out, pushed by the

and that springs up everywhere.

On the other hand, the other side is an unstructured economy, which is lagging behind, where productive investment disappeared years ago and which the tail of the pandemic shook like few others in the region.

On that territory in which the parate is the rule since 2011 the social crisis landed and right there we now have:

─ That despite the triumphalism of the Government, the

: it is 7 percentage points below February, when the recession that had returned to the load in November 2017 had not yet reached the bottom.

We continue, then, submerged in the

─ The consumption plus investment mix marked, in the second quarter of this year, the worst record in the historical series with reds of 22 and 38% respectively.

There was some improvement during the third quarter, but without exceeding the minimum levels in key issues that together represent 60% of average family spending, such as transportation, health, education, housing and recreation.

─ Always with an eye toward the prepandemic, only in three sectors out of a total of fifteen is activity better than in September 2019:

.

It is known, in September 2019 the economy was already hitting the brakes thoroughly.

─ In this time of pandemic, the

.

No coincidence, with a drift calculated at 12%, consumption is on its way to completing three years or so without showing signs of life.

It is clear that it is difficult to find a way out of the social crisis in an economy that is going backwards and that, on top of that, has stopped creating jobs, let's say good ones.

Of those to whom less qualified others are hooked, if not directly trades, there are thousands.

Social Security statistics indicate that in the private sector the registered employed, in white, are today half a million less than in January 2018 and that, since then, the figures always carry a minus sign.

And if the reference is run to the public sector, we have that the upward curve was definitively cut in November of last year, perhaps or surely because

In fact, another World Bank report deals with a similar set.

It foresees that this year the average GDP of Latin America will fall 7.9%;

7.2% that of Colombia;

6.3% in Chile and 5.4% in Brazil.

For Argentina, the forecast does not differ too much from the goal that the Ministry of Economy set for the National Budget: a 12.3% drop and four long points higher than the regional average, says the World Bank.

With or without Covid, something similar happens when it comes to

.

Now in terms of saving numbers, where in Brazil and

to October, in the Argentine box we find

;

the annual says a speechless

.

The sample book can continue with the dollar, the rate freeze or the effectiveness of price controls, but with what there is it seems sufficient.

Better said or said without turning, enough to contrast effects and results of the policies that each one implemented in the face of the pandemic, including effects and results of the non-policies.

No whim, these are perfectly comparable economies.

And since we are here, a doubt or an occurrence:

Look also

For the UCA, unemployment jumped to 14.2%, but it could be higher if people went out to look for work

Seven out of ten children under 17 live in poor households