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Container handling in the port of Qingdao
Photo: VCG / imago images
The second and third corona waves are rolling through Europe and North America, the death rate is rising, and the next hard lockdown in Germany is becoming increasingly likely.
The pandemic is dragging on and it is more devastating than many expected in March.
But at the end of the disaster year 2020, large parts of the economy are not doing as badly as they were initially feared.
On the contrary - here and there there have recently been developments that point to a global trend reversal.
A turn for the better.
Five graphics show the signs of hope for the German and global economy.
1. The industry is more robust than expected
The world is changing - and so is the economy.
For decades, the importance of industry for the economy as a whole has been declining, and services are becoming increasingly important.
Germany is also going through this structural change, albeit in a weaker form: here, factories and steelworks are still more important, a higher proportion of value added, than in many other western economies.
In this crisis this is proving to be an advantage.
The spring lockdown had paralyzed many factories from Emden to Berchtesgaden.
Since May, however, the industry's order situation has been surprisingly robust.
Incoming orders in October - the last month for which data are available - were already back at the level of February.
So before the outbreak of the crisis.
It is also noticeable from where most orders are received by German companies: In the summer, domestic orders were temporarily higher.
In the meantime, however, it is primarily clients from abroad from whom the manufacturing industry benefits massively.
The sub-index for orders from abroad was recently even above the level of the last month of the pre-Corona period.
Globalization may have fallen into disrepute due to the pandemic.
In the current crisis, however, the close interlinking with the global economy is making a significant contribution to cushioning the economic crash.
2. It's running again in China
When the coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, China appeared to be the loser of the epidemic.
Today it is clear that the People's Republic is its big winner.
Apparently, the autocratic state has managed to contain the virus.
One thing is certain: China's economy has left the epidemic behind.
Time and again, Beijing is announcing positive economic data these days.
Some seem a bit magical - about the 21 percent increase in November exports compared to the previous year, which was reported on Monday.
But even long-time critics hardly doubt the overall picture: The second largest economy in the world is back in the growth-miracle mode.
And it also pulls its trading partners upwards, such as Germany.
German automakers would have a problem without China.
The fact that BMW sold more vehicles from July to September than ever before in a quarter would be unthinkable without the Far East market.
BMW sold 34 percent of all cars manufactured worldwide in the People's Republic.
That was a good two and a half times as many as in Germany.
At VW and Mercedes, the proportion of China is even higher.
The sales figures are "almost too good to be true," enthuses Daimler boss Ola Källenius.
In the long run, the growing dependency is worrying, but in the short term it saves company balance sheets and jobs.
So far there are few signs that the China boom is subsiding.
Car sales were last seven months in a row above the previous year.
And economists are currently revising the growth forecasts for the economy as a whole upwards.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects almost two percent in 2020 and a good eight percent in 2021.
No other big country can match that.
3. Raw materials are in demand as in boom times
It's hard to believe: It's a pandemic - and prices on many commodity markets are going through the roof.
The copper price is at its highest level since 2013. Iron ore has risen by more than 50 percent compared to the beginning of the year.
Nickel, zinc and aluminum are also listed well above the pre-corona level again after a steep fall in spring.
The base or industrial metals are traditionally used as a barometer of the global economy.
After all, these raw materials are indispensable for many products and goods that are particularly in demand in boom times: cars, electrical appliances and houses, for example.
In fact, business in many factories and in the construction industry is doing better than many experts initially feared.
On the other hand, parts of the service sector are weakening considerably, especially the tourism and leisure industry.
In addition, metal prices are influenced by special factors.
On the one hand, there is the upswing in China, which is consuming more than half of world production of some raw materials - and which has apparently built up strategic reserves during the crisis.
On the other hand, the virus hindered production and thus reduced supply.
"There was temporarily less supply of copper because mines in Peru in particular were closed because of Covid-19," says Eugen Weinberg, chief raw materials strategist at Commerzbank.
“Now the demand is also higher than expected.
That drives prices up. "
For many factories, the metal boom means higher costs.
For producing countries like Chile, Brazil, Indonesia and Peru, however, it is a blessing.
4. The container freighters have full bellies
They are the symbol of globalization and its backbone: container freighters transport around 90 percent of the goods traded across borders around the world.
And they are just as fully packed as they haven't been for a long time.
The freight rates, i.e. the prices, on the most important routes have more than doubled on average since spring.
Many big ships are fully booked.
And in Europe there is even an acute shortage of containers.
Maritime trade has not prospered for a long time.
The rush is enormous, especially on the most important transpacific connections.
The Chinese produce, the Americans consume - this could be summed up in a simplified way.
Despite the trade war instigated by US President Donald Trump, US imports from China in October were higher than they have been in years.
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Copper mine in Mexico (archive image): prices are skyrocketing
Photo:
HECTOR GUERRERO / DPA
But leading ports such as Antwerp and Rotterdam are also reporting good handling rates in Europe.
Even in Hamburg things are going better again.
"Consumers can no longer carry their money to restaurants or hotels," says Christian Cohrs, logistics analyst at the private bank MM Warburg.
"Instead, many are upgrading their homes." For example with fitness equipment, flat screens or a prefabricated house for the garden.
There is little else to do.
How long does the container bloom last?
Uncertain.
For skeptics like Gabriel Felbermayr, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, it is the result of catch-up effects - and could soon be over.
On the other hand, Hapag-Lloyd and other shipping companies are already making many bookings for 2021.
Globalization may not have ended in the way its opponents would like.
5. The trend is our friend
When industrial nation after industrial nation went into lockdown in spring, the shock waves sent through the economic network: car factories stopped working, supply chains came to a standstill, truck traffic on motorways and federal highways fell noticeably.
This "sudden stop" of the economy was a problem for many economic researchers: they normally make their forecasts on the basis of key figures and leading indicators, that is, clues in the past for further economic development.
That was no longer possible in lockdown.
Yesterday's indicators still showed normality; there is not a single precedent in recent economic history for the sudden breakdown of large parts of economic life.
The warnings of many experts were correspondingly dramatic: The Institute for the World Economy in Kiel feared the "mother of all recessions".
The Munich-based Ifo Institute published scenario calculations in which economic output in Germany in 2020 fell by 20 percent in the worst case - and by 7.2 percent in the "most optimistic" scenario.
Since then, however, the trend has been increasing: Research institutes, the Advisory Council and the Federal Government have adjusted their forecasts of economic development over the course of the year to the actual development, and mostly for the better.
It now looks more like a minus of a good five percent.
The German economy has done much better in 2020 than expected.
Torsten Schmidt, Economic Director of RWI in Essen, explains it like this: The situation in spring was too unusual to be able to fall back on historical experience.
In the third quarter in particular - from July to September - the upswing turned out to be much stronger than forecast: The joint forecast of the leading economic research institutes expected an increase of 6.5 percent.
In fact, it was 8.5 percent.
"Exports in particular have recovered much faster than expected," says economist Schmidt.
Not only China is contributing to this - but also developments in the USA.
The US economy looks astonishingly robust - despite, or possibly precisely because of the barely slowed spread of the virus.
For 2020, the experts at the OECD are now only expecting a minus of 3.7 percent.
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