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Empty Christmas market stall on the Lueneburg market square
Photo: Philipp Schulze / dpa
According to the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the imminent lockdown in Germany will endanger the economy and, above all, the jobs of seasonal workers, and will significantly increase the number of short-time workers.
Every week lockdown is likely to cost around 3.5 billion euros or four tenths of quarterly GDP in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), said Enzo Weber from the research institute of the Federal Employment Agency (BA).
"That will put another strain on the development of employment in Germany," emphasized Weber.
The gross domestic product in Germany in 2019 was around 3.44 trillion euros.
Overall, the researchers expect the labor market to remain relatively robust.
"Still there will be a setback," said Weber.
Short-term seasonal employment, including many mini-jobs, is likely to be dropped.
The number of short-time workers will again increase by several hundred thousand.
Rapid new settings required after the lockdown
After the lockdown, swift recruitment will be crucial for a restart of the labor market, said Weber, who in the past had called for financial incentives for employers who take on new employees even during the crisis.
He justified his assessment that the labor market would remain robust overall with the fact that there was now a lot of experience with lockdown measures and extensive state support measures existed.
"The upcoming vaccine approval gives a perspective of an end to the acute corona phase," said Weber.
"Many companies will therefore try to keep their employees."
The course of a pandemic is an economic risk
In view of the new measures against the spread of corona, the federal government expects an economic setback.
"The economic catch-up process has recently continued, but the course of the pandemic poses a risk," warned the Federal Ministry of Economics in its monthly report published on Monday.
The partial lockdown, which has existed since the beginning of November, and the other measures adopted to reduce social contacts, put pressure on the hospitality industry and companies in the leisure and tourism sectors in particular.
"With the recently decided hard lockdown, other areas are now also affected," said the ministry.
"All in all, economic growth in Germany is likely to suffer a noticeable setback in the fourth quarter."
Most economists are now assuming that gross domestic product will shrink in both the current fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2021.
"Winter is going to be hard," said the economist Volker Wieland.
"With the hard lockdown and the consequences for Christmas sales for retailers, the› double dip ‹cannot be avoided," said ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski.
“No matter how well exports and industry can run.” In view of the increasing number of infections, the federal and state governments decided that all shops except grocery stores and drugstores must close from Wednesday - initially by January 10th.
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kig / Reuters / dpa-AFX