Ismael Bermúdez
12/28/2020 14:00
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 12/28/2020 2:49 PM
On Tuesday, the Chamber of Deputies would approve the
pension mobility law
without changes, as
approved
by Senators.
If so, starting in January, retirements, pensions, family allowances, AUH, Universal Pension for the Elderly (PUAM) and non-contributory pensions - an inverse of 18 million people - will be adjusted
every three months
, in
March, June, September and December
according to a new formula.
The outstanding points for the calculation of future increases are
salaries
, the
tax collection
that goes to the system and the
total income of the ANSeS
.
The increases in March, June and September will depend on the first two of these variables (wages and collection).
In December there will or will not be an adjustment according to what happened with the third variable, the total collection of the ANSeS.
Although the new formula is similar to the one applied between 2009 and 2017, it contains some variants.
It establishes that the increases will be calculated
at 50% according to the variation of the INDEC and RIPTE Social Security salaries
, of both the best, and
the other 50% according to the variation of the tax collection that goes to the ANSe
S, by beneficiaries.
But, in December,
the increase in assets for the fourth quarter of each year will
be compared
with the total interannual collection of the ANSeS, less the increases of the three previous quarters
.
And in that case, for December, the
lower percentage
will be chosen
.
Thus, for example, if the first three quarterly increases yielded a rise of 25 points, that of the fourth quarter of 5 points and the total interannual collection of the ANSeS was 26%, the increase in December
will not be 5 points, but only 1
, that is, it will have a discount of 4 points.
Instead of 30, the increase will be 26.
Meanwhile, if it were the other way around, and the ANSeS collects more, for example, 32%, the December increase of 5 points
remains unchanged
and that of the year remains at 30.
Ultimately, at the end of each year, the increases could be
less
than the improvements of
active workers
, or less than the growth of
ANSES collection
.
For example, in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014, pensions
increased less than formal wages
.
In 2013, 2016 and 2017
the opposite
happened,
and
in 2015 there was a
tie
.
Inflation
Regarding
inflation
, the formula does not contain any
compensation
clause
for the rise in prices.
If the increases in pensions and other benefits are
less
than inflation,
there is no correction of assets
and the beneficiaries of the whole system - 18 million people - will have a
real fall
in the benefits they receive.
This is what happened in
2014
and
2016
when inflation was between
8 and 9 points higher
than the increases in the formula.
What can happen
If wages and tax revenues grow
above
inflation, retirees and other beneficiaries will have a
real increase
in their benefits.
But this increase could be
less
than the improvement in salaries, if the total income of the ANSeS is lower and in December an
adjustment
has to be made
.
If the opposite happens, and inflation shoots up, they
will lose again in real terms
to the increase in prices.
In periods of
expansion and low inflation
, pensions and other social benefits will have a
real increase
.
And in
recessive
periods
and high price increases
, they will have a
strong real fall
due to the absence of an inflationary floor.
In addition to the fact that the lowest percentage is applied between the first tranche of the formula and the total collection of the ANSeS.
Upgrade
The law does not contemplate
any recomposition
for the loss
suffered
by all the beneficiaries of the system with the change of the formula during 2018 and 2019 and with the increases by decree of this year.
Between 2018 and 2019, all pensions and social benefits
had a loss to inflation of 19.5%
.
And with the 4 increases by decree of 2020, the minimum pensions had an increase of
35.3%
and the maximum ones of
25.3%
.
Consequently, depending on what the inflation figure for December shows, the minimum retirement could be tied to the rise in prices, but
retirements above $ 20,000 will have a loss
that in the case of the maximums could be
10 points
, above what was lost during 2018 and 2019. And as future increases will be granted on pension levels at different depressed levels - between 19.5% and 24.5%, without any recomposition -
the loss of the last three years will be last for life.
Look also
Retirees: in the ruling party they want changes in the mobility formula approved by the Senate