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Longer lockdown depresses economic growth by one percentage point


The German shutdown will be extended by two weeks. According to a forecast by the Institute for Employment Research, this will have noticeable consequences for the economy.

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Printing machine production in Heidelberg

Photo: Uwe Anspach / DPA

An extension of the corona lockdown by around two weeks until mid-February should lower German economic growth in the first quarter by around one percentage point, predicts economics professor Enzo Weber from the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB).

"The economy will not collapse as much as it did in the first lockdown," said Weber.

The employment trend is also likely to remain relatively robust, Weber forecast.

"But a rapid recovery in the labor market will not be a sure-fire success afterwards," warned the economist.

Without government aid, every ninth company would have gone bankrupt

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), around every ninth company in Germany would have gone bankrupt during the Corona crisis if the state had not provided billions in aid and temporarily relaxed the rules for declaring bankruptcy.

Small companies in particular would have been affected, it said.

The withdrawal from the support measures will be a "balancing act" for Germany, warned IMF expert Shekhar Aiyar.

According to the IMF analysis, the state must enable a smooth transition to normal by continuing to support severely affected companies - for example by forced closings to contain the pandemic - and making the end easier for non-viable companies.

Restructuring experts warn that the suspension of the obligation to file for insolvency is currently also protecting companies that would have no chance of survival even without the corona crisis.

However, the feared wave of bankruptcies did not materialize when insolvent companies had to file for bankruptcy again between October and December.

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ssu / dpa / Reuters

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2021-01-19

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