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How can it be that gasoline and diesel are suddenly so expensive again?
Photo: Sven Hoppe / dpa
Many commuters will like the stricter home office rules.
Especially with these fuel prices!
Those who drive to a gas station these days have to pay their fuel more expensive than ever before in this pandemic.
The liter of super and 1.247 euros of the liter of diesel cost 1.414 euros on Monday in the national average, as the portal benzinpreis.de has calculated.
These are the highest prices since the end of February 2020, when the virus spread across Europe.
And triggered two devastating crashes on the international crude oil markets.
How can it be that gasoline and diesel are suddenly as expensive again as if there were no collapse in global air traffic - and no shutdowns that paralyze public life in Germany and elsewhere?
All of this should actually lower demand, and with it prices.
A small part of the price increase is explained by the new CO2 tax.
At the turn of the year it increased the price of petrol by around seven cents and the price of diesel by eight cents per liter.
In return, long-distance commuters receive an increased commuter allowance or a mobility premium.
According to ADAC, the decisive factors, but loud, are the swings on the crude oil market.
"The at times extreme development of the petrol price over the past twelve months," says Stefan Gerwers, Head of Transport at the Automobile Association, "reflects the dramatic drop in prices on the oil market and the gradual recovery."
The oil market has changed radically
Never before have the international crude oil exchanges seen such capers as they did nine months ago.
On April 20, the price of a barrel (159 liters) of the US standard variety WTI in New York stores fell to minus $ 40.
For the first time in the history of this market, sellers had to pay money to have someone buy the stuff.
That is how superfluous the otherwise precious material was at that time.
But the oil market has changed since then.
Radical.
This is shown by data from the US energy agency EIA.
Accordingly, from June to December, worldwide demand was higher than supply in every single month.
“The global economy slumped, but the recovery was also strong.
The oil demand reflects that. "
Dora Borbély, Dekabank's raw materials strategist
On the one hand, large producers cut their production: above all the OPEC countries.
At times they reduced their daily output by more than eight million barrels a day.
Russian and American oil companies also cut their offers.
On the other hand, mankind was soon burning more oil again.
The first surge in demand came with the easing after the first corona wave in the west and the upswing in China.
In the autumn of the northern hemisphere, consumption rose even further, despite the second virus wave.
“The global economy slumped, but the recovery was also strong.
The demand for oil reflects that, ”says Dora Borbély, DekaBank's commodity strategist.
The current lock and shutdowns are by no means as serious for the economy as the measures of the first wave.
"In almost every country, industry is largely excluded from the lockdowns," says Borbély.
The global supply chains have remained largely intact this time.
"That keeps the economy relatively high despite the higher number of infections." And with it the global demand for petroleum products.
The service sector is hit hard in some cases.
However, restaurants, hotels and trading companies generally use relatively few petroleum products.
The airlines need all the more fuel for this in normal times.
The collapse of international air traffic is therefore also a major factor in the fact that global oil consumption is still lower than it was before the pandemic.
According to EIA estimates, people currently burn almost 94 million barrels (159 liters each) per day.
That is around three million barrels less than in January 2020.
Although global demand is likely to fall this month, the price of crude oil has risen noticeably again since the beginning of the year.
A barrel of the North Sea standard variety Brent has cost more than 56 US dollars in the past few days, more than in almost eleven months.
Saudi Arabia is largely responsible for this.
By far the largest oil producer in OPEC has voluntarily cut its production by a million barrels in order to keep supplies tight and prices high.
"But Saudi Arabia will not last long with this strategy," predicts expert Borbély.
Many OPEC members need money after the horror year 2020 with expensive lockdowns and weak petroleum revenues.
At these prices in particular, there is a great temptation to break the cartel - and to throw more on the market.
In addition, the danger of the global economy and with it oil consumption collapsing again: for example if virus mutations spread rapidly or the vaccination campaigns do not go as hoped.
Borbély is therefore convinced: "The $ 50 mark will not last for the next few months." Then the fuel at Germany's petrol pumps would also become cheaper again.
And better fit into the dreary pandemic picture.
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