The coronavirus pandemic has caused the largest decline in the Spanish economy in 85 years.
According to the estimates of the academic Leandro Prados de la Escosura, only the Civil War and the crisis of 1868 have caused greater collapses of the gross domestic product in the last 170 years.
We review some of the main hits suffered in modern history.
Covid pandemic (2020)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 4.1%
+ 3.8%
-3.8%
-eleven%
2000
2006
2009
2015
2020
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 4.1%
+ 3.8%
-3.8%
-eleven%
2000
2006
2009
2015
2020
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 4.1%
+ 3.8%
-3.8%
-eleven%
2000
2006
2009
2015
2020
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 4.1%
+ 3.8%
-3.8%
-eleven%
2000
2006
2009
2015
2020
The Spanish economy suffered a fall of 11% in 2020. It is the largest drop in activity in peacetime due to the restrictions imposed by the authorities to try to contain the expansion of the coronavirus.
The recovery in the second half of the year has been insufficient to offset the damage of the pandemic after the harsh confinement between March and June and the subsequent restrictions.
The services and hospitality sectors were the branches of activity most damaged during the past year, to which is added the deterioration of the foreign sector, the slowdown in domestic demand and the collapse of investment.
Only public spending managed to somewhat curb the bump and offset a significant part of the fall in household income thanks to ECB financing.
The Great Recession (2008-2013)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 3.8%
+ 4.1%
-3.8%
2000
2006
2009
2015
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 3.8%
+ 4.1%
-3.8%
2000
2006
2009
2015
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 3.8%
+ 4.1%
-3.8%
2000
2006
2009
2015
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 5.2%
+ 3.8%
+ 4.1%
-3.8%
2000
2006
2009
2015
The financial crisis that erupted in 2008 after the US housing bubble burst had its iconic image with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The credit bubble burst around the world and financial markets closed access to liquidity .
In Spain, the brick bubble that the national economy had ridden in previous years burst.
And the financial crisis of 2008 was followed by a sovereign debt crisis in 2012. The wounded markets then fled the countries with the most imbalances.
The Spanish economy had accumulated a great dependence on foreign financing and competitiveness problems.
With unemployment and a skyrocketing public deficit, the country was in an extreme situation, almost unable to finance itself until the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi at the time, spoke the magic words in July 2012: “I will do what has to be done .... ”.
Mariano Rajoy had to ask the EU for funds that same summer to finance the bank rescue.
Then came the adjustments and austerity policies that marked an era.
The devaluations of the peseta (1992-1993)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 2%
+ 1.4%
-1.1%
1980
1986
1993
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 2%
+ 1.4%
-1.1%
1980
1986
1993
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 2%
+ 1.4%
-1.1%
1980
1986
1993
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 2%
+ 1.4%
-1.1%
1980
1986
1993
The 1993 crisis is characterized by having also accumulated problems of competitiveness.
It was a crisis somewhat similar to 2008 in that sense.
With the difference that the devaluation was made through the currency instead of with the so-called internal devaluation.
The government of Felipe González had allowed the peseta to appreciate a lot to curb inflation.
However, this ended up damaging competitiveness and they had to carry out three devaluations of the peseta in less than nine months.
The Spanish economy had overcome the ups and downs of the world economy at the beginning of the 1990s, thanks to the investment commitment to organize the Barcelona Games and the Seville Expo.
But when the party ended, the country found itself with highly indebted public administrations and companies.
From the second quarter of 1992 to the autumn of 1993, the Spanish economy had negative growth rates.
GDP contracted 1.1% in that period.
Oil Crisis (1973)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.9%
+ 7.7%
+ 0.6%
-0.4%
1969
1973
1975
1979
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.9%
+ 7.7%
+ 0.6%
-0.4%
1969
1973
1975
1979
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.9%
+ 7.7%
+ 0.6%
-0.4%
1969
1973
1975
1979
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.9%
+ 7.7%
+ 0.6%
-0.4%
1969
1973
1975
1979
The oil crisis began in 1973 with the decision of the Arab countries not to sell crude to those who supported Israel in the Yom Kippur war.
Dependence on black gold was then very high and the price soared.
In Spain, the Franco government tries not to pass on the rise in prices at the cost of borrowing abroad.
Until it couldn't hold out any longer and ultimately caused rampant inflation, unemployment, and an industrial and energy crisis.
With the Moncloa Pacts, an attempt was made in 1977 to give an answer by adopting measures to tame inflation and the public deficit.
World War II (1945)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 7%
+ 6%
+ 4.4%
+ 0.5%
-8.1%
1942
Four. Five
46
1948
1954
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 7%
+ 6%
+ 4.4%
+ 0.5%
-8.1%
1942
Four. Five
46
1948
1954
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 7%
+ 6%
+ 4.4%
+ 0.5%
-8.1%
1942
1945
46
1948
1954
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 7%
+ 6%
+ 4.4%
+ 0.5%
-8.1%
1942
1945
46
1948
1954
In 1945, the Spanish gross domestic product suffered a hit of 8.1% due to the Second World War, the weakness of the German partner that lost the contest and the establishment of an Autarchy under the fascist dream of protecting national production.
The Franco state that emerged from the Civil War intervened the economy, nationalized multinationals and closed itself off to foreign investment.
Professor Francisco Comín explains that the 1940s were the true great depression of the Spanish economy.
Civil War (1936)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 4%
-7.4%
-4.9%
-8.1%
-26.8%
1930
1934
36
37
1939
1945
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 4%
-7.4%
-4.9%
-8.1%
-26.8%
1930
1934
36
37
1939
1945
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 4%
-7.4%
-4.9%
-8.1%
-26.8%
1930
1934
1936
37
1939
1945
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 4%
-7.4%
-4.9%
-8.1%
-26.8%
1930
1934
1936
37
1939
1945
The destruction caused by the Civil War was embodied in the largest economic recession in modern Spanish history.
In 1936, the activity sank 26.8%.
On top of that tremendous drop, the following year another 7.4% crash was added.
And in 1938 there was a decline of 0.4%.
In total, the war conflict meant the loss of about a third of production.
But it does not stop there.
As a result of the Falangist ideology of producing everything in the country, the Autarchy aggravated the hardship and prolonged the economic catastrophe for two decades until the 1959 Stabilization Plan, which liberalized the economy and opened it up to foreign capital, firing GDP.
Cuban and Philippine War (1898)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 8.2%
+ 7.2%
+ 6.1%
+ 4.1%
-10%
1888
1892
1896
1898
1901
1906
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 8.2%
+ 7.2%
+ 6.1%
+ 4.1%
-10%
1888
1892
1896
1898
1901
1906
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 8.2%
+ 7.2%
+ 6.1%
+ 4.1%
-10%
1888
1892
1896
1898
1901
1906
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 8.3%
+ 8.2%
+ 7.2%
+ 6.1%
+ 4.1%
-10%
1888
1892
1896
1898
1901
1906
In 1985 the Cuban War of Independence began, which ended with the United States entering the conflict in 1898. The military escalation in Cuba and the Philippines exacerbated a crisis already unleashed by the fall in international agricultural prices, a plague of phylloxera and problems in banks.
The issuance of securities to finance the colonial wars left public debt at 123% of GDP in 1902, the year from which it began to decline thanks to a restructuring and a fiscal reform orchestrated by Fernández-Villaverde.
To get out of that crisis, Spain depreciated the peseta and introduced trade protectionism.
And it was favored by the return of capital from Cuba once the colony was lost.
Financial crisis (1868)
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 14.5%
+ 10.7%
+ 6.3%
+ 5.1%
-8.9%
-13.3%
1859
1866
1868
1872
1874
1877
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 14.5%
+ 10.7%
+ 6.3%
+ 5.1%
-8.9%
-13.3%
1859
1866
1868
1872
1874
1877
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 14.5%
+ 10.7%
+ 6.3%
+ 5.1%
-8.9%
-13.3%
1859
1866
1868
1872
1874
1877
Annual variation of GDP in%
+ 14.5%
+ 10.7%
+ 6.3%
+ 5.1%
-8.9%
-13.3%
1859
1866
1868
1872
1874
1877
The origin of the serious crisis suffered between 1866 and 1868 was in railway investments.
These fueled a bubble similar to that of
punto.com
two decades.
And they exploded dragging with them to the bench.
Two Catalan entities fell, causing a panic.
What's more: the number of banks was reduced from almost sixty to a fortnight.
And this financial crisis was combined in an explosive cocktail with a series of bad harvests that caused a subsistence crisis, with riots in cities like Seville or Granada.
In addition, the Catalan textile industry had suffered serious difficulties shortly before due to the lack of cotton due to the Civil War in the United States.
And all this led to the Glorious Revolution, which dethroned Queen Elizabeth II.