The European economy should pick up again this summer, once the "
cover
" of the health crisis has
been removed
, assured Tuesday the chief economist of the Treasury, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, relativizing the delay in the vaccination campaign in Europe.
Read also: Bruno Le Maire prepares minds for weaker growth than expected in 2021
The chief economist of the prestigious directorate of the French Ministry of the Economy called to "
take a step back
" from the vaccination figures given "
day by day
", during the 2021 edition of Bercy France Export.
“
Normally, in the summer, the vaccination will have been massive;
we are still on the idea of normalizing the European economy in the summer,
”she added.
An optimism that is not shared by university economists, she acknowledged, who “
think that this is a major psychological shock and that, over time, businesses and households will have an aversion to the economy. risk and will change their behavior
”.
But for economists who "
have their hands in the numbers, both in central banks and in finance ministries
", the image that emerges is that of a "
cover and that, when you remove the cover, the economy is redeploying very quickly
”.
This is evidenced by the “
vigor of consumption
” in France in June and July, after being released from confinement, as well as in December (+ 23%), when businesses were authorized to reopen.
Read also: The difficult implementation of the decentralization of the recovery plan
The President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde also recently assured that 2021 would be "
the year of recovery
".
The International Monetary Fund even revised upwards its global growth forecast for 2021. It now expects a rebound of 5.5% of GDP against 5.2% three months earlier, thanks to the acceleration vaccination and massive government aid plans.