Annabella quiroga
02/10/2021 2:21 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/10/2021 2:21 PM
In January, the blue dollar fell fifteen pesos: it
went from $ 166 to $ 151.
In the same month, inflation rose by about 4% - the INDEC record will be known tomorrow - and the official dollar ran backward.
With this panorama, the bet of the savers who seek to preserve the purchasing power of their pesos were the fixed terms that are adjusted by UVA, that is, that follow the price index.
These fixed terms
grew 21% in the first month of the year
compared to December.
And in the last three months they accumulate an increase of 45%.
From January to January, the jump was more spectacular: they increased 300% in volume.
In contrast, traditional time deposits rose just 7.5% last month.
What are UVA fixed terms?
They are the placements whose yield
is tied to inflation
.
They have a basic interest rate that ranges between 1% and 0.5% and also a bonus that reflects the evolution of inflation.
They currently offer an average yield of 4.5% to 5% per month, while traditional time deposits pay about 3% per month.
UVA fixed terms have
a minimum duration of 90 days
.
Last year, in the midst of the exchange rate instability, these three months of permanence took away chances.
But with the dollar stable and low probability of a sharp devaluation in the medium term, they
were gaining ground.
Thus they grew 21% and ended January at $ 52,576 million.
The effect of exchange rate stability
Data from the consulting firm LCG show that time deposits grew 3.5% in January in real terms (discounting the effect of inflation) after accumulating falls in the last quarter of the year.
"This favorable dynamics occurs in a month where there was 'stability' in the exchange rate, with the blue dollar falling and
the cash with liquid below the official dollar for storage
. Added to this are the strong restrictions that continue to operate and leave the captive weights in the system, "says LCG.
LCG shows an alarm signal regarding the evolution of these placements.
The average duration of fixed terms in pesos "
consolidated the decreasing trend
that it showed throughout 2020 and stood at 57.9 days during the month of January, reaching records similar to those of 2003."
During the past year, the average term had been 61.8 days while in 2019 it was 67.1 days, which "accounts for the distrust and the
increase in uncertainty
that has prevailed since before the outbreak of the pandemic ".
"The fall in the demand for pesos that characterizes February and that
could put pressure on parallel dollars
, added to the high levels of inflation that are expected, could affect the good dynamics of the fixed terms that were seen in the first month of the year "LCG notes.
"To this is added
a reference rate that is beginning to lag behind
inflation in 2021, whose floor is expected to be 50%. In this sense, we do not rule out that the Central Bank will react with a rate hike (LELIQ o Retail fixed terms) after knowing the inflation data on February 11 ", they anticipate.
Another alternative offered by the local market for savers is
CER bonds
, which pay an interest rate plus inflation.
Invertironline analyst José Bano details that "the advantage of these bonds is that there is no minimum term of permanence."
And he says that in 2020 "they started an impressive rally of rise that allowed us to double the weights in a year."
Dollar options
Those who in this context continue to bet on the dollar turn to financial dollars.
The MEP dollar, which is acquired through the Buenos Aires stock market, accumulates a rise of 7% in the year, while that in cash with liquid (CCL), which allows dollars to be carried abroad,
increased 9.5%.
This positive dynamics of the CCL also stimulated
operations with CEDEARS.
These are certificates of deposits that represent a portion of shares that are traded abroad.
Through CEDEARS, a local investor can invest in Amazon, Tesla or thousands of other stocks listed on Wall Street.
These investments
are tied to high volatility,
but are still attractive to Argentines.
To such an extent that the CEDEAR segment moves much more money than the Merval.
Market data show that there is
$ 3 billion
on one side against $ 1 billion a day on the other.
"It is something interesting because with the CEDEARs
you cover yourself from the risk of the exchange rate in Argentina
and at the same time take advantage of the good vibes that the international market is having. It is the best variant for the ordinary person, since they have liquidity. By 2020, if you invested for a year in a combined portfolio, you had a return of
between 16% and 20% in dollars
despite the pandemic, it is not little, "says Martín Polo, chief strategist of the Cohen Group.
AQ
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