Annabella quiroga
02/12/2021 1:11 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/12/2021 1:14 PM
Despite the forecasts that the "exchange summer" would end with the arrival of February, in the middle of the second month of the year
the calm
that has dominated the market since the beginning of December
remains
.
This Friday, the blue dollar opened at
$ 149
, after a decline of 17 pesos so far this year.
And financial dollars, which in January had risen around 8%, came into balance in the run-up to the extra-large Carnival holiday.
In these two months of "summer", the blue dollar fell, the official one rose less than inflation and the financial ones, that in January had been unmarked, in February they are already coupled to this trend.
So far this month, the MEP dollar, which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, has fallen 0.5% and is trading at
$ 147.20.
The cash with liqui (CCL), the operation to withdraw foreign currency from the country, rises only 0.7% in the month and reaches
$ 151.5.
While the dollar saved is already close to
$ 155.
Between the end of 2020 and the beginning of this year, the usual seasonality of that period helped, which generates
a greater demand for pesos
to meet the payment of bonuses and vacation expenses.
And although these conditions are usually cut in February this time it was different.
There are five reasons that explain this trend.
Less chance of devaluation
In the middle of this week, Minister Martín Guzmán confirmed what the market had been intuiting in recent weeks: the rate of devaluation is going to slow down.
Guzmán's intention is for the depreciation to be 25%, four percentage points below the inflation projected by the government.
With the expectation that the dollar will run slower, savers lose their appetite for the currency and leave to rush out to buy it.
Get off the soy
Despite some ups and downs, the base product of Argentine exports continues to trade above
US $ 500 per
ton.
The rise in prices, together with the stability of the dollar, is
an incentive
for exporters to liquidate.
According to the projections of Fernando Marull, director of the consulting firm FMyA, this combination allowed
US $ 3 billion
to enter
last month, which increased the supply of dollars and helped control the price.
The effect of the stocks
The reinforcement of the stocks last September tightened the turnstile that restricts demand.
And in the following months, the contraction deepened with measures from the Central Bank and the National Securities Commission (CNV) that tightened the requirements to operate with financial dollars.
In this way, the number of people able to access the foreign exchange market was reduced, in a context in which the supply of dollars was growing.
v 1.5
The parallel dollar
Tap to explore the data
Source:
MARKET DATA
Infographic:
Clarín
Central purchases
The Central Bank was able to take advantage of this favorable context.
Thus he cut the sales streak that dragged along almost all of 2020. In December he ended up with a purchase balance of
US $ 600 million
.
In January it added another
US $ 200 million
and so far in February it already accumulates
US $ 400 million
, against all forecasts.
This allows you to convey to the market the idea that you have room to press against those who try to push the prices higher.
The expectation of the agreement with the IMF
At the beginning of this month negotiations with the Monetary Fund were resumed.
Even from the agency they winked at Guzmán's goal of closing the agreement before May, in order to be in a position to reschedule the expiration with the Paris Club that falls that month.
Although there is still a long way to go, the fact that the minister ratified that an agreement will be sought in the middle term - and that it will not be postponed until after the elections, as the most extreme wing of the Government suggests - is a sign in favor of the exchange stability.
AQ
Look also
Saving dollar: step by step how to request a 35% refund for employees and retirees
Martín Guzmán immerses himself in exchange policy: he said that the devaluation of the peso in the year will be 25%
