Daniel Fernandez Canedo
02/16/2021 7:19 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/16/2021 7:32 PM
The announcement of the Minister of Economy that the
depreciation
of the wholesale exchange rate will be 25% until the end of the year was the subject of analysis during the long weekend by businessmen, bankers and economists.
Martín Guzmán changed the heart of his exchange policy at a stroke and without bombastic announcements, which until last week was determined because
the dollar would adjust for inflation
and is now governed by the
"dollar-Guzmán"
which maintains that at the end of the year the wholesale rate will cost $ 102.40.
With the wholesale dollar closing the Friday before the Carnival holiday at $ 88.54, the increase from now until the end of the year to reach the dollar-Guzman
would be 15.25%.
That 15.25% increase in the exchange rate until December
(probably only until after the October elections) is
extremely limited for an economy with an
inflation forecast of between 40% and 50%
for 2021.
Doesn't Guzmán know?
Of course you know, but your strategy is to
flatten the rise in the dollar
that governs exports and imports in an attempt to lower inflation somewhat, which after 4% in January (which was added to 4% in December)
turned on all the red lights of the economic-electoral board
of the Government.
To get an idea of the possible consequences of the dollar-Guzmán, it must be taken into account that now the official dollar
should rise at a rate of 1.3% per month
until the end of the year instead of the 3% to 4% that had been increasing in the last months so as not to lag behind inflation.
Thus ended at least two ideas that the Government had regarding the dollar issue.
One of them, that
they would not allow a new delay in
the real exchange rate.
The other, older and more fallacious, that a rise in the dollar
would not have to affect the prices of the household basket
in the domestic market.
And it was the global weakness of the dollar with the consequent rise in grain prices (the icon in soybeans above US $ 500 a ton, added to the rains of recent days) that
emboldened the Government to try a new scheme of a
certain exchange rate delay
that allows it to be better off for the October or November elections.
Of course, unlike other experiences of exchange rate delay in electoral years (the most prominent was that of 2011, when Cristina Kirchner won with more than 50% of the votes), now the Central Bank
has few reserves and a lot to pay.
In 2011, with the full strategy of a cheap dollar, the flight of foreign currency jumped 90% compared to the previous year and represented US $ 21,504 million despite the exchange rate that Cristina Kirchner inaugurated after the elections.
A comparison that reflects the current Argentine exchange rate weakness is that
that stock allowed the purchase of
US $ 2,500
and the current one, much more restrictive, allows US $ 200.
One question is whether the Government, by controlling the official wholesale dollar, will also manage to control the free dollars, counted with liquidation, stock market and
blue or parallel ticket,
which is $ 150.
For weeks the Central Bank has been selling "cash with liquidation" in an attempt to lower the exchange "gap", which
remains above 70%
, and is an indicator that the fever is still high.
The Central's strategy is to sell dollarized bonds (AL30) and absorb pesos but, on the other hand, buy AL30 using dollars from reserves to avoid a fall in the prices of those same bonds.
The result of this strategy, according to the economist Federico Furiase, was that since November the Central has sterilized $ 95,000 million and
allocated US $ 600 million of the reserves
to support the prices of the AL30.
Can you do it for long?
In the market they say that Miguel Pesce
It has US $ 4.4 billion left in AL30 to keep the CCL at bay.
For the "blue" dollar the official remedy, in addition to having dismantled the
"mash" or "roll"
by trading cheaper than the solidarity dollar (the quota of US $ 200 that is sold with a 30% surcharge and 35% as an advance of Gains), is the
"vacuum cleaner" of pesos that comes from the collection of taxes.
Among the advances of income taxes, Personal Assets, the additional advance for foreign assets and the payment of the Wealth Tax, the state's "vacuum cleaner" of pesos will be felt with intensity in the coming weeks.
Traders estimate that at least
a third of the $ 200 billion wealth tax
will be paid by the end of March by selling dollars on the CCL.
It would be
US $ 500 million
of supply in a market in which today the Central Bank is almost the only offeror.
With the market playing the dollar-Guzmán and more controlled, money begins to look for other directions in the new panorama.
In summary:
CER-adjusted
bonds gain attractiveness
(inflation such as those called TO21 and TX26) and
lose the well-known "dollar-linked"
tied to the exchange rate that were in high demand until the end of last year.
The future dollar at the end of the year, which in October was $ 140 the official one, is now trading at $ 125 and the rate of future operations that was 80% at the end of last year these days is at
40% per year
.
Fixed rate bonds are also attractive in the understanding that if the Government plans to devalue less,
it would not raise the interest rate on term deposits either.
The dollar-Guzmán bet to erase the idea that inflation will be 50% this year is on the table and the players begin to move with the expectation of a new framework for what constitutes one of the safest values for Argentines : the dollar.
Look also
The Government and a very ambitious commitment to the role that the IMF will play
Sergio Chodos: "It is not a priority that the agreement with the IMF be signed before May"