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Border controls: Long truck traffic jams on the border from the Czech Republic to Germany
Photo: Vojtìch Hájek / dpa
The chairman of the economy, Lars Feld, sees great risks for economic development - also because of the emerging virus variants.
They are a general uncertainty that also has an economic impact.
Feld announced that the Council of Economic Experts will revise its economic forecast for the current year downwards.
As recently as November, economic experts were assuming that the gross domestic product would grow by 3.7 percent this year.
"At the moment we can no longer be as optimistic as we were in November," said Feld.
“A 3 before the decimal point is still possible if further border controls are avoided and there are gradual openings after the lockdown.
Then there can be strong growth from the second quarter. "
In March the Council will publish its updated economic forecast.
However, looking into the economic future is harder than ever.
"If the virus variants continue to spread and there is a third wave, all forecasts are wasted," said Feld.
In addition, it must be seen how successful the vaccinations were.
After a 5.0 percent slump in economic output last year, the federal government is anticipating growth in gross domestic product of 3.0 percent in 2021.
This is less than was previously expected.
The lockdown with the closure of restaurants and many retail stores was recently extended by the federal and state governments to March 7th.
Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and the prime ministers of the federal states want to discuss how to proceed on March 3rd.
Business associations are vehemently calling for an opening plan.
Overall correct action
Feld said he could understand the desperation some companies felt over the length of the lockdown and the lack of perspective.
“But overall there is a huge range in business.
The hard hit industries are now in the foreground.
Manufacturing and construction are currently still doing relatively well. "
The fact that the Council of Economic Experts has so far been more optimistic in its forecast than others has to do with this good development in manufacturing and construction.
If the value chains were more severely interrupted by further border controls, however, this would hit the manufacturing sector hard, says Feld.
There are border controls to the Czech Republic, for example - an important production location also for German companies.
Backlog in the digitization of schools and administration
In his view, politics took the right measures in the crisis, said Feld.
However, the tax loss carry-back would need to be extended to two years and there would be too much bureaucracy with the bridging aid.
Feld also criticized the fact that past failures now have to be paid dearly, especially the arrears in the digitization of schools and public administration.
“You would have had to work much, much more intensely on it in summer.
There is some catching up to do. "
Feld's term expires in late February.
According to reports, efforts are being made in the SPD to replace Feld with another economist because of his economically liberal views.
The five-person council of experts to assess macroeconomic developments advises politics.
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