02/22/2021 7:20 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/22/2021 7:42 AM
The pandemic and the quarantine hit the Argentine economy very hard in 2020: GDP fell close to 10%, thus accumulating its third year of decline.
However,
the blow and its effects were not homogeneous
.
The crisis affected different items in different ways, and with different recovery speeds as well.
Despite the context, the year closed with a faster-than-expected recovery in the economy, and this raises a question mark for next year.
According to a report by the consulting firm Ecolatina, local economic activity will have to resolve
two big questions
in 2021
: the exchange front and the health front
, in a year that is also electoral.
In this way, on the one hand:
"The Government will bet on delaying the official dollar to moderate inflation by
betting on an abundant liquidation of agro-dollars and on the control of exchange and imports," indicates the survey.
And on the other hand, "the Executive would shore up
the spending of families through cheap financing
, such as the Now 12 plan."
According to the consultancy,
the effects of these two bets will generate winners and losers.
And
"durable goods"
will be
"the main favored"
in that scenario.
"Indeed, after suffering a strong blow in the most complex moment of the ASPO,
sales of household appliances, cars, motorcycles, furniture and supplies related
to the maintenance and repair of the home
have been improving significantly
, pulling different industrial branches.
"Summer"
of consumption would be short-lived, if there were not an abrupt exchange rate correction - something that we do not foresee in the short term - the reactivation of these sectors would extend, "the report says.
The
construction
is emerging as one of the engines of recovery, says the document explains: "While the demand for inputs for the sector ended 2020 with a drop of almost 20%
in recent months has shown a clear recovery
in" V "which allowed it to far exceed pre-pandemic levels. In addition to this dynamic, the lower restrictions on activity will allow a greater number of companies to gradually resume their works in a context in which the cost of construction at the financial exchange rate maintains a great attraction. "
Finally, another of the sectors that will also benefit will be the
automotive industry
.
“On the one hand, because the participation of local production in patenting will grow in the face of the recovery of domestic demand in a context of restrictions on external purchases and official dollars.
In the opposite direction, the imported supply of high-end units is likely to decline due to a tightening of trade policy.
Secondly, we expect a rebound in sales abroad from the elimination of withholdings for exports that exceed 2020 levels and the greater dynamism of the Brazilian market ”, concludes the report.
Sectors with disparate realities
But not everything is rosy on the road to economic recovery, and there are sectors whose behavior has varied since the Covid-19 era is here to stay.
One of them is
agribusiness
, which, according to the report,
will face two opposing effects in 2021
:
a drop in production, the
result of a drought that is only now attenuating the rains in January and February, and
the rebound for months of international prices
of agricultural commodities.
"We estimate that the appreciation of the harvest of the main crops will rise almost 15% this year, allowing to increase the value and profitability of the producers less affected by the dry season. In a context of exchange restrictions and better financing conditions, the improvement in the income would sustain high demand for agricultural machinery, although the same will not happen with cargo transport, hit by the lower volumes of the harvest ", says the document prepared by Ecolatina.
Sector recovery - Ecolatina
Another that was severely affected in 2020 was
oil production
, -product of the collapse of the international price, restrictions on circulation and less activity-,
for 2021 "the outlook looks more favorable
."
This is due "to the fact that the world price of crude oil continued to improve, driven by the reactivation of the global economy, and also because investment sentiment has recovered."
In any case, "even with an upturn in the demand for hydrocarbons due to increased economic activity and new incentives, the extension of transport restrictions and lower general mobility of the population will prevent a recovery to pre-pandemic levels."
"Within the industry, heterogeneity will continue to be the norm
", highlights the consulting firm founded by Roberto Lavagna.
And he concludes: “We hope that manufacturing activities associated with personal care and cleaning, laboratories, petro and agrochemicals and wood will
consolidate the expansion of the last months of 2020
.
Likewise, the favorable evolution in the production of durables, construction and agriculture will drive the activity of various manufacturing chains, highlighting the steel industry, metalworking, plastics and non-metallic minerals.
On the other hand, activities that supply the hydrocarbon sector, such as refining and manufacturing of steel tubes, will show a better performance, although still below average, while food production will suffer the lower milling volumes.
Sectors that will not recover from the impact of the pandemic
The sectors most affected in the Covid-19 era: tourism, gastronomy, entertainment, culture and personal services,
“will continue to operate below the pre-pandemic”
, even when the vaccine reached the population en masse and the restrictions were significantly relaxed.
"In this sense, it is likely that the full recovery in these services will not be observed until, at least, 2022"
, explains the report.
In contrast to what is expected for durable consumption,
the outlook for mass consumption is unfavorable
.
Leaving well behind the boom of the first months of isolation generated by uncertainty and fears of a potential shortage, sales in these channels have turned negative in year-on-year terms or, in the best of cases, stagnated.
According to Ecolatina: "This dynamic was due to the expansion of the menu of expenses for families after the release of quarantine in a context of sharp deterioration in purchasing power (fall in real wages accompanied by the destruction of jobs)."
Finally, other semi-durable consumer goods, such as clothing, textiles, and footwear, will
not "get off the ground significantly" either
.
As a conclusion of the report, the consulting firm says that "in 2021, the fate of these segments will continue to be
conditioned
by the possibilities of
recovery of real income, the normalization of the protocols of sale to the public and the fewer number of social meetings
in relation to the pre -pandemic: people do not renew the wardrobe to be home ".
SN