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Corona vaccination in Stuttgart
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Shortly before Christmas, everyone was delighted and respected that international research had succeeded in an unprecedented effort in developing a highly effective vaccine against Covid-19 that could be approved within less than a year.
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Annette Koroll PHOTOS / Prognos
Michael Böhmer
, born in 1975, is Chief Economist at the Basel economic research institute, Prognos.
After studying economics in Trier and Bordeaux, he initially worked for the Advisory Council to assess macroeconomic developments.
In 2005 he moved to Prognos AG, where he deals with macroeconomic and economic policy issues.
In the course of January, however, it became clear that this invention alone would not be able to stop the pandemic.
Too little vaccine was produced.
Some economists have suggested that bonuses should be offered to manufacturers who quickly ramp up vaccine production and thus help to remove the bottleneck.
Regardless of the evaluation of the effectiveness of such a premium, this proposal falls short at one crucial point, as does the temporary joy at the development of the vaccine: the vaccine only begins to work against the pandemic at the moment it is in the human body .
Not a second earlier.
We are only just beginning to recognize this mundane knowledge as a problem, also because the willingness to vaccinate is currently generally high in the population (despite the current difficulties with the AstraZeneca vaccine).
The willingness to vaccinate has only increased with the high incidence figures and the scarcity of the available vaccine.
The latter can easily be explained economically and psychologically: What is scarce is what you want to have.
In doing so, we are repeatedly making the mistake of deriving action for tomorrow from today's situation.
However, in summer we will be confronted with an epidemiological situation that is fundamentally different in several respects than today in winter:
More vaccine will become available and the shortages will disappear.
Significantly more people, especially in the vulnerable groups, will have vaccination protection.
The pandemic situation is expected to improve.
The more highly contagious mutants will determine the infection process and displace the original variant.
So the situation seems to be easing on various fronts.
But that is precisely the dangerous and deceptive prevention paradox.
An increasing part of the population will personally no longer consider it necessary to be vaccinated completely or at all in the summer of 2021.
But that would be fatal, as all previous efforts to achieve herd immunity through vaccinations would be in vain.
This is all the more true against the backdrop of the spreading mutants.
If, for example, the British variant is 50 percent more contagious, the old rule of thumb of the "natural" R-value (base reproduction number) of around 3.3 to 3.8 no longer applies.
Then it is in the order of 4.5.
In this case, however, we do not need a vaccination rate of around 70 percent for herd immunity, but of 80 percent and more.
We have to look at these arguments and foreseeable developments today.
That is why we need a systematic, well thought-out and motivating vaccination campaign that adapts to the foreseeable changing conditions over the course of the year.
This also includes incentives, i.e. setting incentives.
There are different possibilities for this.
An effective and extremely easy to implement tool is a general vaccination premium.
Every person who has received the full vaccination dose (in most cases at the second vaccination appointment) receives a bonus in the range of 20 to 30 euros.
Preferably cash on hand.
This is a very relevant amount and a real nudge for the vast majority of the population.
The tough opponents of vaccinations will not be reached with it, but the reasons for vaccination fatigue known from research such as forgetfulness or comfort can be effectively eliminated with such a bonus.
Given the damage caused to our economy by the pandemic and against the background that model calculations put the economic value of each complete vaccination at around 1500 euros, the proposed financial magnitude cannot represent an obstacle.
Of course, a vaccination premium is terribly unfair to those who have already been vaccinated and those who don't need the money.
But we are still in a "whatever it takes" situation, in which a high degree of pragmatism is required.
Too many avoidable and serious planning errors have been made in the course of the pandemic to date.
From masks to protecting the elderly and care facilities and concepts for schools to ordering vaccines.
We shouldn't afford another of these capital mistakes.
Nobody should be surprised when vaccination readiness drops in summer.
We can foresee today, we should take the instruments in hand today to counteract this.
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