03/03/2021 10:29
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 03/03/2021 10:31
During an extensive interview, the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán avoided responding to sensitive issues, and even more so, if they were not of a strictly economic nature, but he did leave some definitions on the dollar, the economy and the renegotiation of the foreign debt.
He also spoke about the situation of retirees, about what will happen to the stocks, and about Argentine businessmen based in Uruguay.
He blamed the IMF for
"what happened in Argentina,"
while confirming that
"a ten-year Expanded Facilities Loan"
is being negotiated with the agency
.
Dollar and stocks
In dialogue with journalist Luis Novaresio, in his
Said This
program
, Guzmán assured that the Government has
“control of the exchange rate situation”
and insisted that there will be no devaluation.
He also spoke of the prospects for the readjustment of the value of the dollar, anticipating that it will be gradual, and will move in a range of
"between 24 and 25%
.
"
In the same sense, he anticipated that by December 2021
the price of the US currency will be close to $ 102.5 per unit
.
And on capital control, he recalled that it was a measure adopted during the government of Mauricio Macri.
Regarding the exchange rate, Guzmán explained that
"capital controls are transitory and depend on the speed at which we have more reserves
.
"
Devaluation
"Let's remember what happened in October.
The exchange rate gap grew up to 130 and 150%"
, at that time "many marked" that there was going to be a devaluation, he said, adding:
"We said no
.
"
"There is nothing more destabilizing for the economy than an abrupt jump in the official exchange rate.
And we had the instruments to turn this situation around, and we applied them," he said.
In the last four months,
the exchange gap fell from 130% to 60%
, fell "70 percentage points", and the Central Bank has been buying reserves.
"That is, we continue to have control," he said.
Inflation
Referring to models of national development, he explained that all the countries that reduced their inflation did so through their own paths and all of them different.
Argentina has to follow "
its own path to calm the economy."
The objective, according to him, is to calm the economy in order to
develop an economy that creates jobs
, adds value and is stable, federal and sovereign.
In this regard, he claimed the official objective of lowering inflation by an average of five points per year.
"Our objective is for inflation to be reduced gradually," he
warned, and reiterated that this is a "multi-causal problem", adding that "inflation is a multi-causal problem, it is not only fixed by slowing the monetary issue but also with the increase in exports, solving the problem of the fiscal deficit and with behavioral issues ".
"Forecasting is complex";
the minister affirmed, while pointing out that "inflation was underestimated in the previous government."
IMF
A few days before traveling to Washington to advance in the renegotiation of the debt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Guzmán reiterated that the loan from the credit agency to our country that the Macri administration took
"was to support the electoral campaign." of Change
.
In that sense, he commented that
"a historic loan was taken that was not used for anything that had to do with increasing the country's productive capacity
. It was a loan to support the campaign of the previous president, at the cost of the Argentine people suffering ”.
"We owe ourselves as a society, at the same time that we look forward, to
solve problems such as negotiations with the Fund,
" he stressed.
And he added that "we must also review what happened and caused enormous damage."
He reiterated that the loan from the organization to our country that Macri took "was to support his electoral campaign."
When asked how he stands in front of the IMF after Fernández's statements in Congress, Guzmán indicated "look if because we are negotiating we are not going to say things to our faces."
"Of course, with respect," he assured.
Guzmán blamed the IMF "for what happened in Argentina," while confirming that a ten-year Expanded Facilities Loan is being negotiated with the agency, "and recalled in that sense the claim for" rate reduction "that did to the Fund at the G20.
"The loan is so large that its sustainability in a short period of time is difficult
," he said.
Rates
Regarding rates, an issue that President Alberto Fernández mentioned at the opening of Congress sessions when he announced a "transition rate table", Guzmán recalled that the Cambiemos government
generated rate increases of the order of 1000% that caused "enormous imbalances"
.
In that sense, he explained:
"If we had to apply that table, the increases would be greater than 100%, which we are not going to validate
."
And he anticipated that what there will be increases that are framed in the Budget Law, "understanding that there must be balance in everything to resolve the issue of rates."
Regarding subsidies, he clarified that "the ratio of subsidies to GDP is maintained in relation to 2020, but there will be a scheme so that the subsidy is not the same for all people."
Retirement
In relation to retirements and pensions, he acknowledged that they are in a "regrettable situation that must be resolved."
"The purchasing power of retirements fell very sharply between 2015 and 2019, and in 2020 there was a pandemic that hit the country very hard. We made every effort to protect the purchasing power of retirees. From now on, the goal It is the recovery of the purchasing power of pensions. And in the cases in which it could fall below inflation, it is compensated economically. The commitment is that year after year this situation will improve. The formula for updating assets is oriented to that. ", he highlighted.
Businessmen
When asked what he thought of the businessmen who were going to settle in Uruguay, the minister asked: how many businessmen are there.
And he countered the sayings that by going to live in the neighboring country they stopped producing in Argentina.
"I meet many of them, some live in Uruguay but they take a plane and come to produce here.
"Be careful with these data because they do not represent the reality we are experiencing," he stressed in this regard.
In addition, the minister questioned the economic concentration, "
in terms of market power, monopolies or oligopolies
", stating that it is not a good thing for the country and that this dynamic has caused much damage in the economies of the whole world.
That is why he affirmed that the objective is to "work so that there is competition".
In this sense, he stressed that "dialogue has to be clear, frank and consistent, and in this way we seek to dialogue with all sectors of the economy, including businessmen."
Cristina and Máximo
The relationship with Vice President Cristina Kirchner and with Deputy Máximo Kirchner.
Guzmán clarified that he gets along with Cristina
"very well"
and that they have an "enriching" relationship.
He said of the ex-president that "she has great intelligence and a great commitment to the country."
Regarding his relationship with Máximo, he stressed that together with Sergio Massa they had "a very important role in everything that has been to take steps to calm the economy, on which Congress and the Executive must work together."
Research for future dollar
When consulted by the cause investigating Cristina and the former Minister of Economy and current Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof for operations with the
future dollar, he assured that
"I find
this cause ridiculous
.
"
"It is a subject that I taught for a long time at the university.
In the case, the definition of what a market is,
basically
, is being questioned
. One can argue whether the economic policy was good or bad, but that this constitutes a crime does not make sense. "he commented.
Candidate
Asked about the version that indicated that he could run as a deputy in this year's legislative elections, the official ruled it out:
“My mission is to calm the economy and work for an economy with greater stability.
I am 100% dedicated to that ”
.
YN
Look also
Juan José Llach: "To grow Argentina needs to define a course clearly"
Martín Guzmán: "The IMF loan was to support Mauricio Macri's campaign"