Ana Clara Pedotti
Updated 03/04/2021 11:39
After several postponements, at the end of the month,
the facilities and flexibilities
that the Central Bank gave to loan holders during 2020 due to the economic emergency that the pandemic generated, expire.
Users must start paying the refinancing they did in September of the balance of the card and those who have loans will no longer be able to kick the installments without paying interest.
Attentive to this date, local banks are closely monitoring the increase in the
level of arrears
of families and SMEs when it comes to meeting
Although they acknowledge that the level of non-performing loans managed to remain stable last year despite the resounding fall in the economy, they believe that in this first half of the year there may be
"a little jump."
, the latest official data available from the Central Bank, the average delinquency rate for the entire financial system totaled
Precisely the battery of facilities that were given to borrowers during the extended quarantine in the country were key so that this ratio does not present great changes.
In a private bank with the majority of retail clients, they explained: "The
that we still have is still
, given that
we have lost traceability
of creditor behavior due to regulatory deferrals for the different products."
They say that they began to "have instances of payment for
first maturities on 3 + 9 credit cards
(regulations that established that the balances owed on the cards could be paid in 9 installments with 3 grace), but as of February, although
a slight deterioration can be seen, it
is far from be significant in terms of the summary payment percentage. "
The expectation is that as of April, when the people who entered
the refinancing plan of the balances
of their account statements at a rate of 43% will
have to cancel,
the fulfillments will suffer.
At the beginning of the year, the credit consultancy Moody's had anticipated an increase in the levels of delinquency in the local financial system, both for families and companies,
expected for the first half of this year
And in the different entities a "tighter air" has already been felt since January.
"Our projection is that as regards the quality of the loan portfolios, both for families and for companies, this year will be
the worst since 2002,
" they explained in an entity.
In another private capital bank they detailed that if you look at the situation in the rear-view mirror,
the outlook seems kinder
than expected when the pandemic began a year ago.
But they also recognized that at that time they
took measures to mitigate the impact
of the crisis.
"Credit quality was positively affected by the
BCRA's regulatory temporary flexibility regarding the classification of debtors
and the possibility of transferring unpaid installments at the end of the life of the loan, accruing only compensatory interest," explained an executive.
"However, banks have made
related to Covid-19 to
face a possible increase once the exemption is lifted
. As of December, the delinquency ratio is around 2% and still remained in these first two months of the year, "he added.
In the corporate segment, the situation
is a bit more alarming
One of the entities consulted explained that 25% of its portfolio of SMEs entered the program that allowed to carry unpaid installments until the end of the useful life of a loan.
"We cannot know for sure if these are
companies that were hanged
or that saw the financial opportunity and took advantage. What we can assure is that it is more than 5 times the number of companies that are in default. We will see what happens when this benefit ends in April "
At this point, the situation of the self-employed and monotributistas also worries the entities.
In a bank of national capitals they explained: "We have been following it minute by minute. We hope that the arrears will not skyrocket since April, although we know the effect of" normalization "will not be immediate, and that the jump in arrears may arrive in May. or June ".
Which are the companies that will have to renegotiate US $ 2.5 billion of debt at the request of the Central Bank
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