Soledad Navarro
03/05/2021 1:16 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 03/05/2021 1:32 PM
In the four exchange wheels that March has been running, the Central Bank has already bought US $ 480 million, added to the US $ 185 million it bought on Thursday, and which almost total everything it acquired in February.
Something that in any case is not reflected in the accumulation of
reserves that the monetary entity consolidates on a daily basis
.
The question that arises is what allows the monetary entity to buy with that strong firepower and when that movement could find a brake.
The monetary authority accumulates in just over three months of net purchases about US $ 1,680 million, if the positive balances of December, January and February are taken into account, they totaled about US $ 1,397 million, plus the US $ 280 million in this start of March .
For specialists, this behavior is due to several issues: in the second half of January activity in the ports began to normalize (after the December break, which was very significant, with a reduction in the movement of wagon trucks and trucks with soybeans), the record international prices of raw materials (mainly soybeans), which are added to the already known restrictions on imports, and the super stocks for the purchase of dollars by individuals and companies.
In this sense, the economist Amilcar Collante assured that this firepower has especially as a partner
"the price of soybeans, which is close to US $ 520 per ton,
" and which represents 60% above the prices of 12 months ago.
"In fact, the liquidation of agro-dollars in the first two months of the year was US $ 3.95 billion, the second highest record in 18 years (except for 2016) for that two months," he said.
The Cesur economist indicated that the import restrictions, added to the super trap for the purchase of dollars by individuals and companies, "allow the monetary entity to be able to get more foreign currency."
And in the same vein, Gustavo Quintana, from PR Cambios, indicated that "without significant demand and with greater supply, there is only one strong buyer:
the BCRA
."
However, Quintana added another issue: the decrease in the rate of exchange rate adjustment, which
"contributes to dilute expectations of sudden jumps
,
" he
said, adding,
"that may be encouraging anticipation of sales that were postponed."
When asked if they see an immediate brake on the strong purchases of foreign currency that the entity directed by Miguel Angel Pesce is making, Collante assured that "in reality the restrictions on imports and the super stocks continue, and furthermore, they are confirmed estimates for the 2020/21 harvest - around 48 million tons for soybeans and 47.5 million tons for corn -,
this movement will be far from being cut
. "
"On the contrary, it should increase from April to July, which is when the highest liquidation of agro-dollars occurs," he stressed.
And in the same vein, Quintana said that "it is difficult to know" when it will stop, "especially considering that at the end of the month the commercialization of the thick crop begins with more intensity, and it is expected that the income flow will be maintained be increased ".
"In the coming months we will have to monitor because we will no longer have this supply factor and there is still a BCRA that will have to balance between a lower level of exports and higher imports that the recovery demands," said Guido Lorenzo.
Regarding the plan that the Government can follow, the economist said:
"We see that there are a series of objectives that are not being reflected in the progress of the economy",
for employment, "the convergence of inflation at the levels announced by the Minister and, the recovery of salaries, among others, which also includes the exchange policy that Guzmán commented in February (basically delaying the exchange rate) ".
"Between reality and the objectives we do not see any clear course of action. The depreciation rate is still high for what the Minister announced," he said.
And he concluded:
"The strategy we hope is that the rate of depreciation slows down and runs well behind inflation closer to the electoral period.
Inflation will be a problem at that time and all kinds of measures will be tried to contain it, including exchange policy, "he concluded.
For the specialist Mauro Cognetta: "The ideal would be for the reserves to be rebuilt and that is one of the plans pursued by the Government, therefore I would not be surprised if it continues to buy at least this month and the one to come" with those strong movements .
Bookings
In the single exchange market, the wholesale market, the Central Bank maintained the pattern of slight daily corrections (9 cents, which closed at $ 90.29), absorbing the surplus supply from the private sector.
Only on Thursday, the monetary authority bought US $ 185 million
, accumulating a positive net balance of US $ 480 million for the week.
However, these operations have so far not modified the balance of net international reserves.
This is because at the same time that dollars enter, they leave through transfers in payments of debt maturities from the national government, the private sector and in some cases from provincial jurisdictions.
International reserves as of Thursday were US $ 39,785 million.
"In reality, the BCRA sells bonds to absorb pesos, and then so that the bond parities do not fall in the market, it buys those bonds with net reserves," and thus maintains its portfolio, explained Amilcar Collante, who continued: "At the end of the two operations sterilized pesos with net reserves ".
And for this purchase and sale operation to last over time, the entity depends on sustaining the flow of dollars in the MULC.
Dollar
The blue dollar is sold this Friday at $ 144, after falling $ 1 yesterday. In this way, it is $ 14 below the solidarity dollar, which is trading at almost $ 158 in the average of the entities surveyed by the Central Bank ( BCRA).
Meanwhile, financial prices continue to advance.
The MEP dollar rises 0.2% to $ 145.44, while the cash with liquidity advances 1.1% and amounts to $ 148.85.
Meanwhile, the wholesale dollar opened the last day of the week at $ 90.39, 10 cents above yesterday's close, while the retail dollar is trading at $ 95 on the screens of Banco Nación (BNA).
Meanwhile, the official exchange rate advanced six cents in the wholesale market, to $ 90.29, to accumulate an increase of 7.3% in 2021. The exchange gap between the official dollar and the "blue" was reduced
to 59.5 %, still near a low since April.
What Guzmán said this week
The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, ruled out an abrupt devaluation and ratified his plan to bring the rate of gradual devaluation to 25% during 2021. In this way, he
plans to end the year with a wholesale exchange rate of $ 102.4
.
This corresponds to the government's goal of reducing inflation to 29%, which is very far from market expectations, which for this year project an average rate in the area of 50%.
"There is nothing more regressive and destabilizing than an abrupt jump in the exchange rate. In the last four months, the gap has been reduced by 70 percentage points," Guzmán said last night in an interview with channel A24, in which he assured that the Government is "in control of the exchange situation."
In the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA), published in early February, analysts projected for December 2021 that the nominal exchange rate will reach $ 125.
YN