Daniel Fernandez Canedo
03/09/2021 19:00
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 03/09/2021 19:41
If there is something that Minister Martín Guzmán is clear about, it is that financial stability has become
his main political capital.
Having
tied to the dollar
is an asset for any Argentine government in an electoral year and on this occasion (with a pandemic, a vaccine scandal and Vice President Cristina Kirchner on fire against judges, the Justice and the International Monetary Fund),
the value of that result be empowered.
It is in the heat of this need that Miguel Angel Pesce is consolidating from the Central Bank a
"super roller"
to keep the free dollars (dollar stock market or MEP and "counted with liquidation") quiet, impacting business with the blue or parallel.
The strategy, which started at the end of October, was consolidated over the weeks and in the heat of what constitutes the most important data for the country in economic matters, which is the strong rise in soybeans in the international market that In addition to dollars, it unleashes political fantasies in the Government.
The "super roller"
It was the cause, in addition to the interest payments on the debt, to explain a rare result in the Central Bank whose synthesis is: Pesce buys dollars
but reserves do not grow to the same extent.
According to official data, so far this year to March 3, the Central has bought
US $ 1,195 million
and reserves increased only
US $ 331 million
.
What's more, in the first three days of this month Pesce bought US $ 406 million and reserves rose US $ 200 million.
Part of those dollars that are not going
to pay interest on the debt of international organizations
(this is why the president of the Central is very interested in Guzmán reaching an agreement with the IMF before the end of May), and another part to finance the "super roller" that became
the key to keeping the
dollar quiet
.
The validity of the "super roll" and the rise in soybeans (at the end of August it was at US $ 355 and now at US $ 530, an increase of US $ 175 or 49% doing the same, incredible fortune), were two main arguments for Guzmán will be encouraged to affirm that the wholesaler will rise 25% until the end of the year and that on December 31 it will be at $ 102.40.
The Central Bank buys dollars but reserves do not grow to the same extent.
Thus, between Guzmán and Pesce they defined an unwritten rule: the "dollar Guzmán" sets the "floor" and the "super roller" tries a "ceiling" as a means so that
the "gap" between dollars falls somewhat
and exporters do not be tempted to under-bill.
According to the calculations of the consulting firm Eco Go, the "super roller" to keep the free dollars smoothly
cost the Central Bank US $ 680 million
of the reserves since the end of October and breaks with the idea of the effectiveness of the stocks.
If the dollar is so calm when
inflation continues to pressure
and from politics much less tranquility is generated, it is, to a large extent, because the Central is selling foreign currency.
What is the "super roller?"
The Central sells AL30 bonds and absorbs pesos, but simultaneously buys those same bonds with dollars from reserves in an attempt to avoid a further fall in those bonds.
Thus, the supply of dollars in the market increases at a rate of between
US $ 10 and US $ 15 million per day
.
With this scheme, a wholesale dollar is at $ 90.66, the cash with settlement at $ 153 and the blue at $ 143.
The photograph shows a
gap of 60%,
moderate compared to last year's levels, but still far from the 30% that could be considered attractive to favor the liquidation of currencies.
Lowering the gap between dollars is now
becoming the main objective for the economic team,
especially after the rise in the country risk rate in recent days.
The rise in this rate (it is at 1,614 points and a month ago it was 1,448), is the reflection of a new fall in the prices of Argentine bonds as a result, it is estimated, of
the new wave of distrust
that was generated from the onslaught of the vice president against Justice, the IMF and the spaces of power of President Alberto Fernández.
Bonds yield between 18 and 19% per year in a financial world that began to change with the rise in the interest rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which now yield around 1.53% per year .
The price of gold has fallen 11% so far this year and the Central Bank's metal reserves also suffer.
An additional issue to explain that the Central buys dollars but reserves grow to a lesser extent is that the rise in the interest rate in the US is pulling gold down internationally.
Gold falls 11% in the year
and the Central's metal reserves also suffer.
The financial world is going through a very particular moment, with developed countries issuing freehand currency and with
forecasts of a violent recovery in economic activity.
In Argentina the panorama is different.
Economic activity is rebounding but
the
tensions of politics
leave little room for optimism
to expect some rise in investments.
The point to look at in the coming months will be the exchange "gap".
The "super curler" is doing its job on free dollars, but without an expectation of short-term agreement with the Monetary Fund,
its effect may be diluted.
Look also
Alberto Fernández and support for Martín Guzmán on the adjustment: "The fiscal balance is not left or right"
Support from Banco Nación to a proposal from producers to recover Vicentin