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DIW boss Marcel Fratzscher
Photo: Daniel Naupold / dpa
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has revised its growth forecast downwards in view of the pandemic development.
With a view to the pandemic measures, economists are only expecting economic growth of 3.0 percent for the current year, as economic expert Claus Michelsen said.
In December, the scenario envisaged growth of 3.8 percent.
"We assume that we will experience a third wave of pandemics," said Michelsen.
The measures taken by the federal and state governments would make openings and closings dependent on certain threshold values for the seven-day incidence.
This approach leads to a "stop and go" in the economy, which has to adjust to openings and closings every few weeks.
"That promotes insecurity," said Michelsen.
While industry in particular should benefit from better developments in the important export markets of China and the USA, the service sectors are hit much harder.
The suspension of the obligation to register for bankruptcy last year only obscured the bankruptcy events.
RWI lowers forecast by 1.3 percentage points
The Essen economic research institute RWI is now looking at the situation with similar skepticism.
It is lowering its growth forecast for the current year to 3.6 percent; in December, the RWI had expected a full plus of 4.9 percent.
RWI also reduced its growth expectations for 2022 - from plus 3.0 to 2.8 percent.
"The greatest risk to the economic recovery is the further course of the corona pandemic," said the economic chief of the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Torsten Schmidt.
If the gradual relaxation of infection protection measures were delayed by the increase in new infections, this could mean the end for a larger number of companies.
"That would not only slow down the economic recovery in the short term, it would also have negative long-term consequences for the economy as a whole," emphasized Schmidt.
Optimism in Kiel - thanks to the good global economy
The Institute for the World Economy (IfW), on the other hand, is more optimistic.
The Kiel researchers increased their forecast for the growth of the gross domestic product this year from 3.1 to 3.7 percent despite the beginning of the third corona wave.
The IfW is forecasting growth of 4.8 percent for 2022.
This is likely to be due to exports, which are likely to increase by 12.8 percent this year "as the global economy continues to brighten".
According to the forecast, consumption will also gradually pick up.
"Since there is also a prospect of sustainable relaxation for many companies due to the availability of effective vaccines, there will probably not be any major declines in investments," says the institute.
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